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Wiz Imp

(8,614 posts)
26. The estimates are based on a relatively small statistical sample
Thu Dec 11, 2025, 11:37 AM
Thursday

and thus are subject to several types of error including sampling error. A big reason the data are revised the following month is the time frame for which employers to report their data to be included in the current month's sample is extremely tight. Many employers are unable to report the data whithin that time frame, so their data is not included until the revised estimates. Most times the revisions are not real large, but occasionally, particularly around turning points in the economy, the revisions can become larger because all of the data becomes much more volatile.

Another reason for larger monthly revisions is that the seasonal adjustment process is dynamic which means it factors in all of the data up to the current month. Because of that, the actual revised estimate the following month may be the same as the original estimate, but the reported level could change solely due to the seasonal adjustment changing. I can assure you this is a perfectly normal effect of dynamic seasonal adjustment and typically makes the data more accurate.

Finally, even at their worst, the BLS data are extremely accurate. Last year, the benchmark revision was -589,000 jobs. That may sound like a lot, but in reality represents a revision of less than 0.5%.

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1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

No effn doubt that ALL negative numbers are being fudged vapor2 Dec 10 #1
Didn't Krasnov just hold an economic rally in the Poconos, gab13by13 Dec 10 #2
BLS numbers have not been "fudged" and Jerome Powell did not Wiz Imp Thursday #15
Did you read the supplied link ? KS Toronado Thursday #20
Thank you. You're right, he did not. And a technical note from the BLS on the size of sampling error progree Thursday #22
Kick dalton99a Dec 10 #3
Read an article on Yahoo the other day... Xolodno Dec 10 #4
That is absolutely NOT what they said. Wiz Imp Thursday #14
Think we may have read two different articles. Xolodno Thursday #21
You may be right, but they both referred to the same rport from Challenger. Wiz Imp Thursday #25
You don't have to explain it to me. Xolodno Thursday #34
The article doesn't say that has anything to do with Trump EdmondDantes_ Dec 10 #5
BLS has had since April to revise its numbers down, gab13by13 Dec 10 #6
The same amount of time every other president does EdmondDantes_ Thursday #23
I don't remember when Biden was president that those numbers had to be lowered, gab13by13 Thursday #27
Because your memory isn't accurate is my guess EdmondDantes_ Thursday #31
Does this include the 911,000 downward revision over the period April 2024 through March 2025 progree Friday #35
and does this include the 589,000 downward benchmark revision from April 2023 thru March 2024? progree Friday #36
Wall St. Will listen to Powell, not Trump. Nt Fiendish Thingy Dec 10 #7
This is why Powell is lowering interest rates, gab13by13 Dec 10 #8
Every month, they re-state previous months' numbers... Mark.b2 Dec 10 #9
You obviously know nothing about how sample based estimates are derived. Wiz Imp Thursday #13
The only thing I know is the quality of the estimates... Mark.b2 Thursday #19
The estimates are based on a relatively small statistical sample Wiz Imp Thursday #26
Thank you! Very interesting and helpful. Nt Mark.b2 Thursday #32
AND popsdenver Thursday #10
I was in post office yesterday to mail Christmas stuff tavernier Thursday #24
Nope popsdenver Thursday #33
The Fed lowers interest rates when the economy is doing badly. It's to stimulate the economy IronLionZion Thursday #11
You sound exactly like Trump Wiz Imp Thursday #12
I simply want you to explain one fact for me, gab13by13 Thursday #28
I wouldn't trust any figures Figarosmom Thursday #16
This is why I think a lot of magas are now quitting. C Moon Thursday #17
why does it say the US Skittles Thursday #18
I am not backing down, gab13by13 Thursday #29
Investors rely on the accuracy of these numbers lame54 Thursday #30
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