China’s Silver Gate: Why Beijing’s New Export Rules Could Reshape Global Prices in 2026
As 2025 draws to a close, silver markets are bracing for a structural shock that could reverberate across clean energy, artificial intelligence, and global manufacturing. Beginning January 1, China will implement a new export-licensing regime for silver—an administrative change that, on its surface, looks technical, but in practice could tighten global supply at a moment when demand is already stretched.
The policy places government oversight between China’s silver output and the rest of the world. With Beijing controlling an estimated 60%–70% of globally traded refined silver, the move effectively gives Chinese authorities a gatekeeping role over roughly 120 million ounces of annual exports. For markets that rely on uninterrupted access to the metal, the implications are significant.
Why Silver, and Why Now?
China’s decision appears rooted in domestic realities rather than pure geopolitics. Local silver prices surged to record levels in late December, and Chinese spot and futures markets have traded at persistent premiums to London and COMEX benchmarks. In some cases, contracts briefly slipped into backwardation—often a signal of immediate physical scarcity.
China is the world’s largest industrial consumer of silver, accounting for more than half of global demand. Solar manufacturing remains the single biggest driver, but electric vehicles, grid expansion, power electronics, and data-center infrastructure have all become increasingly silver-intensive. Each EV, for example, uses materially more silver than a traditional combustion vehicle, especially once charging infrastructure is included.
From Beijing’s perspective, ensuring sufficient domestic supply for these strategic industries is a national priority. The new licensing regime reflects a broader pattern: over the past two years, China has imposed export controls on a range of critical minerals, citing national security and industrial resilience in response to Western chip restrictions and tariffs.
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