I have found understandingwar.org site accurate on various topics. I check them regularly for updates on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They do not appear to have an agenda other than accurate reporting. They have a series on Iran, with a link to the latest update below here: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-9-2026/ . Plenty of detail with maps.
The update is from Jan 9, so if Iran's government has fled the country it won't be listed there. Having said that, there are rumors but no confirmation that the Ayatollah or others have fled. My two cents is that Iran's leaders have not fled. They've reiterated their hardline stance and have no trouble killing protestors. They've survived about a dozen periods of protest in the last 15 years. Of course, maybe this is the one that succeeds.
Key Takeaways
Internet Shutdown in Iran: The Iranian regime has sustained its nationwide internet shutdown, likely to disrupt protest coordination and obscure the scale of its repression. Widespread protest activity has continued to take place across Iran amid the internet shutdown.
Protests in Iran: The protests in Iran may have expanded to such an extent that they are challenging Iranian security forces’ ability to suppress them.
Protesters damaged regime institutions in multiple cities across Iran on January 8 and 9. The Iranian regime may increasingly rely on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to suppress the protests as local Law Enforcement Command forces reportedly face bandwidth constraints.
Iranian Regime’s Crackdown on Protests: Senior Iranian regime officials reaffirmed their hardline stance on the protests and willingness to sustain the regime’s violent crackdown on the protests. The regime has expanded its use of lethal force to crack down on protests beyond western and central Iran.
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