America's betrayal crystalizes in the EU

[DFW]

22. No, we will NOT be fine

The EU nations plus Norway and Switzerland got away with instituting some wonderful social nets after World War II because with the USA providing the military safety umbrella needed for political stability, they could afford it. Already taxing their populations to degrees that would have caused armed citizen rebellion in the USA, they provided services that the citizens of the U.S. could only dream of. We do NOT have "free everything," as some in the States like to claim. It is financed differently, that's all. As long as we are there to provide a reassuring backup, they'll manage to afford it. Norway will be OK due to their small population and their North Sea oil. Switzerland will make do, as they have a small population as well, and have been prudent (by European standards) with their finances. The UK has North Sea oil as well, but their population is something close to 8 times that of Switzerland, and they maintain a substantial military, which is at least a partial drain on their finances, and thus social services.

BUT...........

Now that the EU can NOT depend on the USA as a reliable defense backup, they are faced with trying to figure out how to not reduce the social services their populations have come to take for granted, and build up their own military safety shield at the same time (hint--they can't do it). The word "deficit" has turned into a particularly ugly word because membership in the EURO-zone requires the member states not to run a deficit over 2%. There will have to be trade-offs, or else the USA will have to somehow resume all or at least part of its pre-Trump role AND (non-negotiable if this is to work) provide credible assurances that another Trump will never again pollute the White House with his disdain for anyone who does not make a hobby out of kissing his substantial ass.

Already, the Germans were furious with the Greeks for coming to Germany with their hands outstretched, saying, "we can't handle being part of the Euro (correct), and we are going under. Send us a massive amount of money, or we'll drag the whole Euro system down with us." They were exactly correct, and the Germans paid up, incensed that their taxes were used for a lot of it. The Euro zone had no business letting Greece into the Euro to begin with. The Greeks used to let their bureaucrats retire at 55, and gave them huge pensions, paying for it by continually devaluing the drachma, their currency. But when they joined the Euro, they no longer had that option. Their central bank was the same as every other country in the Euro zone, and they couldn't devalue their currency any more. It was Frankfurt's decision, not that of Athens. Since they couldn't devalue the Euro, they could no longer afford to let their (excessive number of) bureaucrats retire at 55 with huge, unjustifiable pensions.

Some serious, and probably painful trade-offs are in the EU's near future, and there will be some huge, damaging strikes protesting the measures. Way too many hands are demanding pieces of the pie that doesn't have enough slices to go around. It's like that old gangster movie, where the robbers are splitting up their take: "I'll take half, and you two guys can have thirds." It has been like that for over half a century, and there not enough "thirds" left to go around. Sure, guys like Putin and Erdoğan have Bezos-like billions stashed around the globe. Probably Orbán, too, at this point. So what? Who is going to do anything about it? Anyone want to go over to Russia or Turkey and yell "tax the rich?" Be my guest, but make sure your will is current, and that your next of kin have made funeral arrangements.