Latest polls in California Governor race. Buckle up, people.

[haele]

21. Nasty primary ads to add fuel to social media manipulation.. Also, California Democrats

Tend to fall into three or four different ideological camps, and there are way too many will figuratively cut their noses off and not vote for Governor rather than hold them if the "wrong" Democrat wins the primary.
And then, we end up with a Jill Stein / Harambe protest or non-voting situation because one tools too much corporate money and is associated with California third way types, and the other is a very populist Billionaire who made his money through questionable financial business activities, and no one really knows if he's a Pritzker or a Romney.

And that's how the GOP sneaks in. Hinton easily has the Faux viewers and can peel off the more centrist "we're the educated and hard working Democrat" NIMBY types who just don't appreciate why the poor or homeless people are still visible near their upper middle class neighborhoods.
On edit - Never forget. Though I'm looking at the National elections, there were Democrats who voted for Trump in '16 because they were swayed by the Social Media blitz, not to mention the amount who voted third party or protest write ins, along with too many that stayed home.
Just as there were even more Democrats that didn't vote for Harris in 2024, same reason.
And honestly, the last Governor's race in California was pretty much still a Democratic shoe in at the time; Newsom was still highly regarded within the Jerry and Willie Brown Coalitions.
The Tech Bros were just starting to stink, and his reputation hadn't yet visibly started to split from progressive policies to more Centrist pro-business policies.
This time around, our coalitions are not quite as united as they were then. So, yeah.
60% can easily become 40% if angered Democratic voters don't want to hold their noses, The 30% GOP can coalesce and blitz Social Media highlighting their carpetbagging talking head to pick up independents and the more privileged Center-Right Dem voters on a "pragmatic" pro-Tech and Business, and a "Compassionate Conservative" platform .("Yes, we aren't MAGA, we promise to support the First Amendment and safe communities and only go after the real criminals and divisive Terrorists" ).

I remember how "the Governator" stole the office from a far more qualified but lackluster Democratic Governor in California, even as Davis was in the process of successfully fixing California's economy...