General Discussion

HiPointDem

(20,729 posts)

87. 200 cars/1000 people in 1930 = 200% increase from 1900, 100% increase from 1920. And car

Thu Jan 10, 2013, 03:19 AM

Jan 2013

ownership was concentrated in the big cities & their near suburbs.

The figures also don't take farm machinery into account.

This is NYC in 1930.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Tm6rbwLR7Es/S20O2SihhcI/AAAAAAAASlc/4M4-IosC7so/s400/new+york.jpg

Your point is that there were more cars in 1970 than 1930? I never claimed otherwise. My claim is that the pattern we observe: declining/low murder rates circa 1937-1965 (mirrored approximately in major urban areas) doesn't fit the lead hypothesis.

If lead were a major cause, we'd expect to see rising violence in cities starting about 1945, growing from there in big cities and spreading to smaller cities as car ownership increased.

But we don't see that. We see low rates of violence (lower than pre-WW2 levels) and after 1965 we see a pattern of violent crime that is highly selective by race, sex, and population concentration, & also by type of violent crime.

Not what you expect to see with an environmental toxin.

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Yes, lead poisoning could really be a cause of violent crime [View all] xchrom Jan 2013 OP

It was hypothesized 80 years ago that the fall of the Roman Empire was due to lead plates, goblets leveymg Jan 2013 #1

Proving it, for the current era, is news. truebluegreen Jan 2013 #2

Maybe it is "news" to others who do not already have that information. AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #28

Great point! Do me a favor Orrex Jan 2013 #29

I stand corrected. People have known for at least 1900 years that ingesting lead is dangerous leveymg Jan 2013 #72

Thanks--that's a nice summary of the part about general ill health due to lead Orrex Jan 2013 #75

I think too much is being made about this story. I don't view it as news or even as original leveymg Jan 2013 #76

Also lead pipes for water supplies. Jackpine Radical Jan 2013 #51

I don't buy it. what is the mechanism through which increased exposure to lead increases HiPointDem Jan 2013 #3

From Wikipedia: Ptah Jan 2013 #4

i remember when similar studies were done in the 70s. there were problems with them then, & HiPointDem Jan 2013 #5

Well, absent any other information, I'll go with Wikiedia's summary. Ptah Jan 2013 #6

here's some information: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #7

How does that information differ from the Wikipedia citation? Ptah Jan 2013 #9

how do you explain the pre-1925 rise in murder and the drop circa 1937-1965? Lead began HiPointDem Jan 2013 #10

Good point. Ptah Jan 2013 #14

The relevant poisoning is on developing brains, not adult brains jeff47 Jan 2013 #32

yes, they line up well for the crime of aggravated assault, in the cities chosen, in the time HiPointDem Jan 2013 #52

Based on your memory. jeff47 Jan 2013 #59

Prohibition ended on 12/5/1933 and professionally manufactured alcohol became more readily available AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #34

'it's possible....' but unlikely to have had such a large effect on murder rates. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #39

Ever heard of a lead pipe? zeemike Jan 2013 #35

yes, i have. presumably they existed 1937-1965 as well. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #37

"adjusted for confounding factors" AllyCat Jan 2013 #38

why should it adjust for *any* causes? it's a graph of the murder rate, period. i'm not shouting HiPointDem Jan 2013 #43

Because there are other sources of lead in the environment, AllyCat Jan 2013 #47

Did they go away between 1937 and 1965? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #48

The rate of people being Killed in Europe in 1946 was a HUGE DROP from from 1944 happyslug Jan 2013 #69

Military deaths/war deaths aren't part of the murder rate statistics. They're part of the general HiPointDem Jan 2013 #98

Lead paint, and the switch from lead pipe water systems after 1900, better reporting happyslug Jan 2013 #62

i'm not convinced by all the ad hoc, maybe this maybe that stuff on lead pipes & lead paint, HiPointDem Jan 2013 #79

Prior to 1935 we had NO national data base for crime happyslug Jan 2013 #83

I already acknowledged the point about national data. But we do have data for a lot of big HiPointDem Jan 2013 #86

Chipping paint in tenement slums? MADem Jan 2013 #103

There was chipping paint in rural homes too. And there was chipping lead paint circa 1910- HiPointDem Jan 2013 #111

Well, a lot of people were very busy for the first five years of the forties... MADem Jan 2013 #113

lead was used for many things KT2000 Jan 2013 #105

Yes, & what was the lead source that declined precipitously in the 1910s-20s such that the murder HiPointDem Jan 2013 #108

that is what I mean KT2000 Jan 2013 #112

industry pr? what industry has a vested interest in lead these days? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #114

Please note: KT2000 Jan 2013 #120

lead is a *proven* toxin, & has *proven* effects on physical & mental development (i.e developmental HiPointDem Jan 2013 #122

Your math is wrong. 1935 plus at least 20 years (more for cumulative effect) is 1955 SharonAnn Jan 2013 #66

lead began being added to fuel about 1925, not 1935. murder rates dropped dramatically ~1937-1965. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #74

But most Americans did NOT use cars till bout 1954 happyslug Jan 2013 #82

200 cars/1000 people in 1930 = 200% increase from 1900, 100% increase from 1920. And car HiPointDem Jan 2013 #87

Purchased of cars were concentrated in the Rural and Suburban areas prior to WWII happyslug Jan 2013 #96

Here's the problem with your analysis. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #97

Hmmm... krispos42 Jan 2013 #88

'Freakanomics" is right-wing garbage, Steve Levitt is a right-wing hack, and this lead theory HiPointDem Jan 2013 #89

The book didn't mention race as a factor, as far as I can recall. krispos42 Jan 2013 #90

The authors absolutely mention it. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #99

I don't doubt it was in the paper they wrote krispos42 Jan 2013 #106

it was in the book too; not directly, but the whole argument turns on differential abortion rates HiPointDem Jan 2013 #107

Gas isn't/wasn't the only delivery mechanism, though--lead paint was an issue too. MADem Jan 2013 #102

No, it wasn't, but none of the other sources you mention disappeared in the teens and 20s, which HiPointDem Jan 2013 #110

Well, in the teens, a lot of potential criminals went off to war. MADem Jan 2013 #115

not really. us ww1 deaths were .13% of its population. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #116

Well, they didn't all have to die--they could come home wounded, or with PTSD, or healthy-- MADem Jan 2013 #117

same could be said of vietnam vets, but it didn't happen. this is all ad hoc rationalizing because HiPointDem Jan 2013 #119

I'll admit I like the lead hypothesis--it seems very logical to me! nt MADem Jan 2013 #121

Not so much...for example, it's pretty well-accepted that lead exposure = decreased IQ. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #123

There has been a drop in violent crime in almost every big city. WCGreen Jan 2013 #8

why would lead just affect violent crime rates? rather than crime generally, i mean. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #11

Because it's specifically violent crime that's linked to lead poisoning? Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #41

lol. i read your link. the theoretical construct cited has to do with impulse control, which isn't HiPointDem Jan 2013 #46

Impulse control, aggression, and low IQ... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #53

none of which are specific to aggravated assault or violence. but speaking of drugs: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #54

Again... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #63

...your first link... HiPointDem Jan 2013 #70

That was a drug war, something generally removed when it comes to overall murder rates happyslug Jan 2013 #68

and did the authors of such studies control for effects of 'drug war'? & how is it possible to HiPointDem Jan 2013 #71

Pay the $39 a get the actual report. happyslug Jan 2013 #77

wait, you seem to know all the details, why can't you just explain it? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #78

Because report of violent crime are more reliable then other crimes happyslug Jan 2013 #65

that's a reason we might pay more attention to violent crime stats rather than other crime stats, HiPointDem Jan 2013 #73

around here we used to have many murders, shootings by the foreign gang bangers..then Obama was Sunlei Jan 2013 #56

Except the correlation between eliminating leaded gasoline and declining violent crime... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #12

I don't believe that just because someone says so in a news report. I can see it doesn't HiPointDem Jan 2013 #15

Except someone didn't just say so in a news report. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #17

but i haven't read those papers, and no one has posted them on DU. they posted news reports. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #19

Except this says precisely what it's claimed to. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #21

as you are the sort of person who thinks name-calling is an acceptable discussion tactic, you HiPointDem Jan 2013 #26

No, I haven't called you any names. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #27

I posted a Wikepedia link that links to that research. Ptah Jan 2013 #22

First yes, if you read the article you would know fasttense Jan 2013 #24

i didn't say incarceration rates always follow violent crimes rates. i posted the stats on incar- HiPointDem Jan 2013 #33

Thank God for the uk/eu news and uk medical reports or Americans would never know what harms them. Sunlei Jan 2013 #55

except most of the research was done in the us & reported in the us as well. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #57

not these days, the corporations have much stronger control and our American news has declined. Sunlei Jan 2013 #58

yeah, that's why outlets like "forbes" are discussing this research (done in the us), because of HiPointDem Jan 2013 #100

You mean biochemically? Recursion Jan 2013 #31

Where are the people in our country getting lead contamination from? Maraya1969 Jan 2013 #13

Soil, paint and coal burning power plants come to mind Fumesucker Jan 2013 #16

Plus, if you read the MJ article, old windows being lowered and raised Hestia Jan 2013 #67

the main way used to be leaded paint & gas. since both were banned, average blood levels of lead HiPointDem Jan 2013 #18

Check the CDC, which keeps stats on lead across 50 states. Their data do correlate high lead ancianita Jan 2013 #20

can you link to one of those pages where these correlations are shown or described? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #36

My mistatement. I meant that their lead measures data are correlated by others with crime. I'm ancianita Jan 2013 #81

and here's some more analysis from a public health researcher: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #101

Thanks. There's data from national to local levels, and it's all helping to make this case. ancianita Jan 2013 #104

you apparently didn't read what i posted. It says two things: most of the data just shows HiPointDem Jan 2013 #109

decades of lead shot,old pipes,soils,dust,silt beds everywhere water runs off. Sunlei Jan 2013 #30

China, in part. AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #42

We live in a house that is over 100 years old. AllyCat Jan 2013 #44

Firing ranges. morningfog Jan 2013 #84

Are bullets made out of lead? Maraya1969 Jan 2013 #93

Check this out: morningfog Jan 2013 #94

Most recent Mother Jones: America's Real Criminal Element: Lead Fuddnik Jan 2013 #23

+1 xchrom Jan 2013 #25

perhaps the answer today is the medical treatment with chelators as a routine health care. Sunlei Jan 2013 #40

We asked about chelation treatment for our kids when they had levels AllyCat Jan 2013 #45

That experience must have been very upsetting for you parents! Sunlei Jan 2013 #50

I wonder if lead could also be responsible (partly) dotymed Jan 2013 #49

Weird bit of trivia here dmallind Jan 2013 #60

The threat of lead was sown long ago. Remmah2 Jan 2013 #61

Mercury is very close to lead on the periodic table No Compromise Jan 2013 #64

The real problem is Lead is under Carbon in the table happyslug Jan 2013 #80

Too bad you are already tomb-stoned. Now you'll never know what's silly about that statement. cthulu2016 Jan 2013 #91

Close the firing ranges! morningfog Jan 2013 #85

Shut down the bullet manufacturers! ancianita Jan 2013 #92

I thought that was common knowledge noamnety Jan 2013 #95

It may be "trace" quantities of lead that are responsible jmowreader Jan 2013 #118