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FarCenter

(19,429 posts)
2. 10 billion won't happen -- most of the high-growth countries can't produce enough food
Thu Jan 10, 2013, 12:44 PM
Jan 2013

The UN projections have a number of countries in SE Asia, South Asia, and Africa more than doubling their population by 2100. However, those countries already exploit all the available arable land. There is no possibility that they can sustain the projected growth rate.

Food will not be exported from the developed world. As cheap supplies of hydrocarbons continue to be exhausted in the next three decades, more land will be devoted to producing energy supplies instead of food. There are relatively few net exporters of food anyway.

Lastly, due to climate change, arable land area will shrink, and with more expensive fertilizer and energy supplies, agricultural productivity will decline.

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