General Discussion

HiPointDem

(20,729 posts)

109. you apparently didn't read what i posted. It says two things: most of the data just shows

Thu Jan 10, 2013, 09:49 PM

Jan 2013

correlation, which doesn't prove any case at all.

There are few prospective cohort studies, and the ones that exist show little to nothing.

In addition:

1) The case for lead exposure having any predictable/replicable relation to violence at the level of the individual is extremely weak. For example, printers' ink was lead-based into the 60s yet there seems to have been no crimewave among newspaper or publishing print workers.

2) The hypothesized correlation of lead exposure = violence seems to only apply to black males between age 15-25 living in urban areas -- a strange selectiveness for a ubiquitous environmental toxin.

3) There are too many counter-examples, such as Japan, where rates of violence steadily decreased post-war while automobile use steadily increased 1945-1970 (Japan was the first country to ban leaded gas in 1970), but the predicted violence circa 1965-1990 did not happen; it was the opposite.

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Yes, lead poisoning could really be a cause of violent crime [View all] xchrom Jan 2013 OP

It was hypothesized 80 years ago that the fall of the Roman Empire was due to lead plates, goblets leveymg Jan 2013 #1

Proving it, for the current era, is news. truebluegreen Jan 2013 #2

Maybe it is "news" to others who do not already have that information. AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #28

Great point! Do me a favor Orrex Jan 2013 #29

I stand corrected. People have known for at least 1900 years that ingesting lead is dangerous leveymg Jan 2013 #72

Thanks--that's a nice summary of the part about general ill health due to lead Orrex Jan 2013 #75

I think too much is being made about this story. I don't view it as news or even as original leveymg Jan 2013 #76

Also lead pipes for water supplies. Jackpine Radical Jan 2013 #51

I don't buy it. what is the mechanism through which increased exposure to lead increases HiPointDem Jan 2013 #3

From Wikipedia: Ptah Jan 2013 #4

i remember when similar studies were done in the 70s. there were problems with them then, & HiPointDem Jan 2013 #5

Well, absent any other information, I'll go with Wikiedia's summary. Ptah Jan 2013 #6

here's some information: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #7

How does that information differ from the Wikipedia citation? Ptah Jan 2013 #9

how do you explain the pre-1925 rise in murder and the drop circa 1937-1965? Lead began HiPointDem Jan 2013 #10

Good point. Ptah Jan 2013 #14

The relevant poisoning is on developing brains, not adult brains jeff47 Jan 2013 #32

yes, they line up well for the crime of aggravated assault, in the cities chosen, in the time HiPointDem Jan 2013 #52

Based on your memory. jeff47 Jan 2013 #59

Prohibition ended on 12/5/1933 and professionally manufactured alcohol became more readily available AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #34

'it's possible....' but unlikely to have had such a large effect on murder rates. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #39

Ever heard of a lead pipe? zeemike Jan 2013 #35

yes, i have. presumably they existed 1937-1965 as well. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #37

"adjusted for confounding factors" AllyCat Jan 2013 #38

why should it adjust for *any* causes? it's a graph of the murder rate, period. i'm not shouting HiPointDem Jan 2013 #43

Because there are other sources of lead in the environment, AllyCat Jan 2013 #47

Did they go away between 1937 and 1965? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #48

The rate of people being Killed in Europe in 1946 was a HUGE DROP from from 1944 happyslug Jan 2013 #69

Military deaths/war deaths aren't part of the murder rate statistics. They're part of the general HiPointDem Jan 2013 #98

Lead paint, and the switch from lead pipe water systems after 1900, better reporting happyslug Jan 2013 #62

i'm not convinced by all the ad hoc, maybe this maybe that stuff on lead pipes & lead paint, HiPointDem Jan 2013 #79

Prior to 1935 we had NO national data base for crime happyslug Jan 2013 #83

I already acknowledged the point about national data. But we do have data for a lot of big HiPointDem Jan 2013 #86

Chipping paint in tenement slums? MADem Jan 2013 #103

There was chipping paint in rural homes too. And there was chipping lead paint circa 1910- HiPointDem Jan 2013 #111

Well, a lot of people were very busy for the first five years of the forties... MADem Jan 2013 #113

lead was used for many things KT2000 Jan 2013 #105

Yes, & what was the lead source that declined precipitously in the 1910s-20s such that the murder HiPointDem Jan 2013 #108

that is what I mean KT2000 Jan 2013 #112

industry pr? what industry has a vested interest in lead these days? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #114

Please note: KT2000 Jan 2013 #120

lead is a *proven* toxin, & has *proven* effects on physical & mental development (i.e developmental HiPointDem Jan 2013 #122

Your math is wrong. 1935 plus at least 20 years (more for cumulative effect) is 1955 SharonAnn Jan 2013 #66

lead began being added to fuel about 1925, not 1935. murder rates dropped dramatically ~1937-1965. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #74

But most Americans did NOT use cars till bout 1954 happyslug Jan 2013 #82

200 cars/1000 people in 1930 = 200% increase from 1900, 100% increase from 1920. And car HiPointDem Jan 2013 #87

Purchased of cars were concentrated in the Rural and Suburban areas prior to WWII happyslug Jan 2013 #96

Here's the problem with your analysis. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #97

Hmmm... krispos42 Jan 2013 #88

'Freakanomics" is right-wing garbage, Steve Levitt is a right-wing hack, and this lead theory HiPointDem Jan 2013 #89

The book didn't mention race as a factor, as far as I can recall. krispos42 Jan 2013 #90

The authors absolutely mention it. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #99

I don't doubt it was in the paper they wrote krispos42 Jan 2013 #106

it was in the book too; not directly, but the whole argument turns on differential abortion rates HiPointDem Jan 2013 #107

Gas isn't/wasn't the only delivery mechanism, though--lead paint was an issue too. MADem Jan 2013 #102

No, it wasn't, but none of the other sources you mention disappeared in the teens and 20s, which HiPointDem Jan 2013 #110

Well, in the teens, a lot of potential criminals went off to war. MADem Jan 2013 #115

not really. us ww1 deaths were .13% of its population. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #116

Well, they didn't all have to die--they could come home wounded, or with PTSD, or healthy-- MADem Jan 2013 #117

same could be said of vietnam vets, but it didn't happen. this is all ad hoc rationalizing because HiPointDem Jan 2013 #119

I'll admit I like the lead hypothesis--it seems very logical to me! nt MADem Jan 2013 #121

Not so much...for example, it's pretty well-accepted that lead exposure = decreased IQ. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #123

There has been a drop in violent crime in almost every big city. WCGreen Jan 2013 #8

why would lead just affect violent crime rates? rather than crime generally, i mean. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #11

Because it's specifically violent crime that's linked to lead poisoning? Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #41

lol. i read your link. the theoretical construct cited has to do with impulse control, which isn't HiPointDem Jan 2013 #46

Impulse control, aggression, and low IQ... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #53

none of which are specific to aggravated assault or violence. but speaking of drugs: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #54

Again... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #63

...your first link... HiPointDem Jan 2013 #70

That was a drug war, something generally removed when it comes to overall murder rates happyslug Jan 2013 #68

and did the authors of such studies control for effects of 'drug war'? & how is it possible to HiPointDem Jan 2013 #71

Pay the $39 a get the actual report. happyslug Jan 2013 #77

wait, you seem to know all the details, why can't you just explain it? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #78

Because report of violent crime are more reliable then other crimes happyslug Jan 2013 #65

that's a reason we might pay more attention to violent crime stats rather than other crime stats, HiPointDem Jan 2013 #73

around here we used to have many murders, shootings by the foreign gang bangers..then Obama was Sunlei Jan 2013 #56

Except the correlation between eliminating leaded gasoline and declining violent crime... Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #12

I don't believe that just because someone says so in a news report. I can see it doesn't HiPointDem Jan 2013 #15

Except someone didn't just say so in a news report. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #17

but i haven't read those papers, and no one has posted them on DU. they posted news reports. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #19

Except this says precisely what it's claimed to. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #21

as you are the sort of person who thinks name-calling is an acceptable discussion tactic, you HiPointDem Jan 2013 #26

No, I haven't called you any names. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2013 #27

I posted a Wikepedia link that links to that research. Ptah Jan 2013 #22

First yes, if you read the article you would know fasttense Jan 2013 #24

i didn't say incarceration rates always follow violent crimes rates. i posted the stats on incar- HiPointDem Jan 2013 #33

Thank God for the uk/eu news and uk medical reports or Americans would never know what harms them. Sunlei Jan 2013 #55

except most of the research was done in the us & reported in the us as well. HiPointDem Jan 2013 #57

not these days, the corporations have much stronger control and our American news has declined. Sunlei Jan 2013 #58

yeah, that's why outlets like "forbes" are discussing this research (done in the us), because of HiPointDem Jan 2013 #100

You mean biochemically? Recursion Jan 2013 #31

Where are the people in our country getting lead contamination from? Maraya1969 Jan 2013 #13

Soil, paint and coal burning power plants come to mind Fumesucker Jan 2013 #16

Plus, if you read the MJ article, old windows being lowered and raised Hestia Jan 2013 #67

the main way used to be leaded paint & gas. since both were banned, average blood levels of lead HiPointDem Jan 2013 #18

Check the CDC, which keeps stats on lead across 50 states. Their data do correlate high lead ancianita Jan 2013 #20

can you link to one of those pages where these correlations are shown or described? HiPointDem Jan 2013 #36

My mistatement. I meant that their lead measures data are correlated by others with crime. I'm ancianita Jan 2013 #81

and here's some more analysis from a public health researcher: HiPointDem Jan 2013 #101

Thanks. There's data from national to local levels, and it's all helping to make this case. ancianita Jan 2013 #104

you apparently didn't read what i posted. It says two things: most of the data just shows HiPointDem Jan 2013 #109

decades of lead shot,old pipes,soils,dust,silt beds everywhere water runs off. Sunlei Jan 2013 #30

China, in part. AnotherMcIntosh Jan 2013 #42

We live in a house that is over 100 years old. AllyCat Jan 2013 #44

Firing ranges. morningfog Jan 2013 #84

Are bullets made out of lead? Maraya1969 Jan 2013 #93

Check this out: morningfog Jan 2013 #94

Most recent Mother Jones: America's Real Criminal Element: Lead Fuddnik Jan 2013 #23

+1 xchrom Jan 2013 #25

perhaps the answer today is the medical treatment with chelators as a routine health care. Sunlei Jan 2013 #40

We asked about chelation treatment for our kids when they had levels AllyCat Jan 2013 #45

That experience must have been very upsetting for you parents! Sunlei Jan 2013 #50

I wonder if lead could also be responsible (partly) dotymed Jan 2013 #49

Weird bit of trivia here dmallind Jan 2013 #60

The threat of lead was sown long ago. Remmah2 Jan 2013 #61

Mercury is very close to lead on the periodic table No Compromise Jan 2013 #64

The real problem is Lead is under Carbon in the table happyslug Jan 2013 #80

Too bad you are already tomb-stoned. Now you'll never know what's silly about that statement. cthulu2016 Jan 2013 #91

Close the firing ranges! morningfog Jan 2013 #85

Shut down the bullet manufacturers! ancianita Jan 2013 #92

I thought that was common knowledge noamnety Jan 2013 #95

It may be "trace" quantities of lead that are responsible jmowreader Jan 2013 #118