Charlie Cook: Digging Their Graves [View all]

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http://nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/for-republicans-just-doing-the-math-is-frightening-20130117

For Republicans, Just Doing the Math is Frightening
The GOP's strength is older white voters. But to win elections, it needs to appeal to youth and minorities.
This article appeared in print as Digging Their Graves

By Charlie Cook
Updated: January 18, 2013 | 5:39 p.m.
January 17, 2013 | 3:04 p.m.


snip//

This is simply math. As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party. Sure, congressional district boundaries, as currently drawn, will most likely keep the GOP in the House majority for the duration of this decade and until the 2022 election, the first after the next census. But Republicans had better pray that the 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections go their way and they can get another favorable remapping; otherwise, their situation in the House could change markedly as well.

But the GOP’s problems aren’t just about race and ethnicity. While Republicans still do better than Democrats among voters 40 and older, particularly those over 65, they are losing to Democrats among voters in their 30s—and losing badly among those under 30. As someone who just turned 59, I can make this next provocative statement: Democrats are doing better among voters who can be considered the future. Republicans are doing well among those who could be described as the pre-dead.

As those voters whose political identities were strongly influenced by the success of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and the less-than-successful tenure of Jimmy Carter begin to lose their share of the electorate, and those whose political identities were formed during less auspicious times for the GOP increase their share, the future looks troubling for the Republican Party.

Next, look at gender politics. You could once suggest a half-empty, half-full assessment of the political gender gap. Yes, Republicans have a problem with female voters, but Democrats also have a problem with male voters. Keep in mind, though, that female voters outnumber males and that women live longer. In the past two presidential elections, 53 percent of the electorate was female. But worse for Republicans, the vote wasn’t symmetrical. Romney and congressional Republicans won the male vote by 7 and 8 percentage points, respectively; Obama and Democrats won the larger women’s vote by 11 points. That’s a losing equation for the GOP.

For now, the friendly enclaves afforded them by those who drew the congressional districts protect a majority of House Republicans. GOP gubernatorial candidates and other statewide political hopefuls also have some shelter because nonfederal races tend to be fought in a slightly less ideologically driven context, and are less affected by politics out of state and in Washington. But for Republicans who want their party to do more than simply hold a majority of the House—particularly those who hope to gain more than just one-third of the governing responsibility—the GOP needs to stop digging holes and start filling some in.