A simple fact: The current Congress (and the one elected in Nov.) will not pass gun control

[spin]

52. Only 4.5 million gun owners belong to the NRA out of 80 million gun owners. ...

The NRA is seen as the boogeyman by the news media and politicians who support strong gun control.

The news media has supported strong gun control for years but despite their efforts gun rights laws such as "shall issue" concealed carry have swept across the nation.

It is only logical that the failure to implement strong control in recent years has embarrassed both politicians who support such legislation and the media. It's hard to admit that your best efforts have failed, so you need some big bad entity to blame. The NRA fits the bill nicely.

There is no doubt that the NRA is a powerful organization but it is revealing that the media with its strong bullhorn has been unable to stop the spread of NRA sponsored legislation such as "shall issue" concealed carry, "stand your ground and "bring your gun to work" across our nation.

It is my opinion that the reason gun control has lost in recent years is that a high percentage of the 80,000,000 gun owners and voting age members of their families show up at the polls to vote against any politician who wishes for stronger gun control.

In some states such as New York or Illinois a politician can proudly support strong gun control and get reelected. That is not always the case in states like Nevada or Montana or even in Texas or Florida. Politicians from these states can put their careers on the line when they support strong gun control such as another assault weapons ban.

It could be argued that an elected official should vote with his own conscience for the good of the nation. However it should be remembered that a politician is elected to represent the views of his constituency. If the majority of the voters who put you in office do not wish to see an assault weapons ban pass, should you vote for it?

Let's examine some political reality. Start with the the Senate of the United States. Each state gets two senators. The Democratic senators from New York, California, Illinois, Hawaii and Massachusetts may strongly support an assault weapons ban but the Democratic senators from states like Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, Tennessee and Alabama may be hesitant to do so. Some Republican senators from states which favor strong gun control may support the assault weapons ban but those from gun friendly states will not. The votes to pass the assault weapons ban in the Senate simply aren't there at this time. The House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans and the chances of the assault weapons ban passing is even lower.

Obama is one of the great charismatic speakers of our time. He also is able to mobilize a strong grass roots support for his vision for the future of our nation. Perhaps if he risks using his bully pulpit to campaign for strong gun control he may be able to force it through the Senate. If he can garner enormous support from the base he MIGHT be able to get a severely watered down version to pass the House but I feel that is unlikely in the next two years. Of course if Obama tries too hard to pass an assault weapons ban and fails it could hurt his chances of passing other legislation in his second term.

It is wise when you bargain to start from with strong demands. There are many ways to improve our existing gun laws that make sense and could easily pass. It makes sense to me to start insisting on another assault weapons ban and then to give up pressing for it in exchange for requiring a background check for all sales of firearms including private transactions. It might be possible to set up a requirement that anyone who does buy a firearm or ammo has to have proof of firearms safety training and/or a comprehensive background check.

Much of the gun violence in our nation is due to drug gangs fighting over turf. Chicago is a prime example. We lost our War on Drugs decades ago and we simply refuse to admit it.

Of course future events may change the gun control equation. A couple more tragic school or theater shootings involving the use of "assault weapons" like the AR-15 might swing the votes necessary to pass the assault weapons ban. It is quite likely that any person planning a massacre will consider obtaining an AR-15 because the media has widely publicized just how effective this weapon is for mass murder. At one time in the recent past the media always mentioned variants of the AK-47 as the most deadly semi-auto firearm but today firearms similar to the AR-15 are the most popular rifles being sold.

Of course you may stongly disagree with what I have posted and you might be right.

Time will tell.