How Likely is a War with Iran if President Obama is Re-elected? [View all]

[BrentWil]

On other threads I have been beaten up because I suggest that war with Iran is a possibility, whoever is elected President. I have made this suggestion not because I want war, but because I am looking at statements from the Defense Secretary and from President Obama. On 60 minutes, Secretary Panetta made statements that go well over the normal diplomatic speak for, "we really don't like this"

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57345322/panetta-iran-will-not-be-allowed-nukes/

Pelley: If the Israelis decide to launch a military strike to prevent that weapon from being built, what sort of complications does that raise for you?

Panetta: Well, we share the same common concern. The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That's a red line for us and that's a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will deal with it.

Pelley: You just said if we have to do it we will come and do it. What is it?

Panetta: If they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it.

Pelley: Including military steps?

Panetta: There are no options off the table

Pelley: A nuclear weapon in Iran is...

Panetta: Unacceptable.

THis is followed by the President's State of the Union, which had some reasonable strong wording.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/24/remarks-president-state-union-address

And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests. Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent.

Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. (Applause.)

But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.

When put together, this tells me that the Administration really is looking at all options for Iran and that war isn't an impossibility, if the President is re-elected. The other element is that Sunni Arab countries in the region would really like to keep Iran from getting the bomb. They would be the most likely partners in this, I would think.


If I had to put a number on it, I would say that we have between a 10 and 20 percent chance of war with Iran under a second term with President Obama.

Let me be clear, I think this is far better then the GOP entering the White House. Iran is a serious security problem and I trust the President to handle it and I think he will handle it by bring together allies and regional friends to deal with the problem . However, I would suggest that war is still a possibility with Iran, even with the re-election of the President.

Stating that fact doesn't mean that I love war. It means I am trying to describe the World as it is, not as I want it to be.