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HopeHoops

(47,675 posts)

3. Pretty close to zero unless Iran does something really fucking stupid.

Reply to BrentWil (Original post)

Sun Jan 29, 2012, 03:11 PM

Jan 2012

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How Likely is a War with Iran if President Obama is Re-elected? [View all] BrentWil Jan 2012 OP

Hopefully it is much less likely. Kalidurga Jan 2012 #1

That's not correct RZM Jan 2012 #6

I am not sure the Israelis have the ability to accomplish the objective BrentWil Jan 2012 #11

Hmm. Maybe. RZM Jan 2012 #13

We can't and won't do anything with Israel on this besides let them do it alone BrentWil Jan 2012 #15

Very, very low RZM Jan 2012 #2

Pretty close to zero unless Iran does something really fucking stupid. HopeHoops Jan 2012 #3

Or, unless Israel does something really fucking stupid. Tierra_y_Libertad Jan 2012 #7

Sunni Arab states are the ones that will also have a problem with this. NT BrentWil Jan 2012 #16

Both are reliant on U.S. support and would draw us into the conflict. Tierra_y_Libertad Jan 2012 #21

We're already "in it" - the shrub destabilized the region by invading Iraq. HopeHoops Jan 2012 #29

Certainly... the most pressing concern of any leader is to keep power BrentWil Jan 2012 #31

I suspect they already have some and that other countries (like ours) already know it. HopeHoops Jan 2012 #37

I am a little more hopeful BrentWil Jan 2012 #39

I'm more concerned with the devices than individual people. HopeHoops Jan 2012 #45

Stupid as in.. Hawkowl Jan 2012 #41

I was thinking more along the lines of firing on one of the two carriers we have in the region. HopeHoops Jan 2012 #46

Less likely than if a repug were elected, elleng Jan 2012 #4

I would agree with that... NT BrentWil Jan 2012 #9

Guessing they will impose sanctions for 5 to 10 years first to soften the target before invading. limpyhobbler Jan 2012 #5

'Soften the target'. You mean 'kill a few hundred thousand innocent children for not good reason'. sabrina 1 Jan 2012 #17

well said limpyhobbler Jan 2012 #22

I think you have a rather unrealistic view of how our system works BrentWil Jan 2012 #25

It's not conspiratorial cpwm17 Jan 2012 #32

They certainly have influence BrentWil Jan 2012 #34

Your argument holds no water Hawkowl Jan 2012 #43

The Iraq war was the product BrentWil Jan 2012 #60

MIC Put those people in power Hawkowl Jan 2012 #70

It was a part of it.. BrentWil Jan 2012 #73

Do I? sabrina 1 Jan 2012 #50

Yeah, totally... BrentWil Jan 2012 #52

+ a brazillion. nt raouldukelives Jan 2012 #26

The Middle East is too unstable for sanctions to last even more than two years, the Iranian... joshcryer Jan 2012 #63

Iran will have to throw the first punch. Rex Jan 2012 #8

Or "Iran" will have to throw the first punch. stillwaiting Jan 2012 #23

Well, ProSense Jan 2012 #10

I disagree with how you make meaning of those statements... BrentWil Jan 2012 #19

Well, ProSense Jan 2012 #24

Is a weatherman who is tracking a Hurricane wishing for death and destruction? BrentWil Jan 2012 #27

No ProSense Jan 2012 #28

A hurricane could follow a path that could keep it off shore... BrentWil Jan 2012 #30

You ProSense Jan 2012 #33

Again, you have to think what you want BrentWil Jan 2012 #36

It's not really up to President Obama, it's up to the Israelis Cali_Democrat Jan 2012 #12

Actually, it is more up to the Sunni Arab states, IMO BrentWil Jan 2012 #14

It's more likely that that Israelis will launch a strike than the Arabs, IMO Cali_Democrat Jan 2012 #18

I doubt that. BrentWil Jan 2012 #20

The Arab Spring started in Iran. It's up to the Iranians. joshcryer Jan 2012 #64

Obama 12% Republican 30% cthulu2016 Jan 2012 #35

i'd say, it's more like at least 30% Obama to 40%+ Republican inna Jan 2012 #44

LOL, war with Iran is always 6 months away, and will be 6 months from now. Odin2005 Jan 2012 #38

If it happens, the real pull would be after this cycle or after 2014.. BrentWil Jan 2012 #40

and i'm sick of people being willfully ignorant, blind and oblivious of a definite possibility inna Jan 2012 #42

Not my fault that people keep crying wolf. Odin2005 Jan 2012 #47

Banging the drums isn't exactly the same as crying wolf and neither is the response TheKentuckian Jan 2012 #59

A flull-blown action? I think those chances are slim to none, but... MerryBlooms Jan 2012 #48

I trust the president more than any of the repugs bhikkhu Jan 2012 #49

Fullscale war with Iran's been days away for ten years now around here. (nt) Posteritatis Jan 2012 #51

Pretty much. DU People used to tell me Kerry would invade Iran and bring back the draft. emulatorloo Jan 2012 #53

Between the Chimp & Obama admins, nothing has changed in regard to Iran policy got root Jan 2012 #54

It is zip. In 1976, Ford ran on a stealth campaign of "Carter will take us to war because Dems McCamy Taylor Jan 2012 #55

I don't think anyone is suggesting that the GOP would be a better choice to keep us out of Iran NT BrentWil Jan 2012 #56

Silly me. I thought that was the whole point here. McCamy Taylor Jan 2012 #57

Actually, it isn't. But if reading things into it makes you feel better, so be it NT BrentWil Jan 2012 #58

What people aren't considering here is the effect of the Arab Spring on the Middle East. joshcryer Jan 2012 #62

Well, it wouldn't be a "Arab" spring.. BrentWil Jan 2012 #65

You're much more favorable than me, I put it at closer to 40%. A Republican? 100%. joshcryer Jan 2012 #61

Iran is on the brink of its own volition JCMach1 Jan 2012 #66

Maybe... BrentWil Jan 2012 #68

Exactly. joshcryer Jan 2012 #69

Pres Obama 75%. Gingrich 100%. Ron Paul 15%. Prometheus Bound Jan 2012 #67

Likely. But the possibility of an Iran confrontation with a Republican is also likely. BlueIris Jan 2012 #71

Depends largely on what Iran does Prophet 451 Jan 2012 #72

Ahmandinajad doesn't run the country and has very little power within the country NT BrentWil Jan 2012 #74