The N.R.A. Wins Again - TheNewYorker

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60. People are reluctant to answer "I don't know"; this is a well-established fact in polling methodoloy

I have studied statistics and sampling and questionnaire design.

The polls cited on forums like this are almost invariably done by organizations that have an axe to grind, and are conducted for political purposes or simply to generate news buzz.

If you want to get accurate results, i.e. if you care about the accuracy of the results, you include in the questionnaire items that check for validity. You have to ensure that the respondents' answers on substantive questions are supported by a good understanding of the subject.

In this case the term "Federal Assault Weapons Ban" has two likely but contradictory meanings - It could refer to the ban that was in place from 1994 - 2004, or to Senator Feinstein's bill that isn't going anywhere, at least not this year.

Many people have no idea what the previous ban covered, and what it did not cover. Because of pervasive propaganda in the media and sloppy reporting, a lot of people believe that the expired ban covered fully automatic weapons, which have been regulated since 1934. Or they confuse it with the Brady Act which requires background checks on all sales of new firearms. As for Senator Feinstein's moribund bill, that is much more extensive than the expired ban, and very few people have taken the time to read it - In fact most people probably don't care.

Without a validity check, asking people what they think about an item for which they have been given a name and little or nothing more, produces a meaningless result.

There are a lot of poorly informed and misinformed and just plain ignorant people out there. Try asking people at random what they think about the idea of "Ending womens' suffrage." You will be surprised and mystified by some of the responses you get.