The N.R.A. Wins Again - TheNewYorker

[DanTex]

96. I keep hearing about all of these people who are going to switch over to R because of

gun control, and yet I haven't seen any evidence that they really exist. I get that there are a small but very dedicated group of pro-gun advocates, but it seems to me that virtually all of them are already voting Republican. And it also seems that they are already a high-turnout group because they are constantly paranoid about the coming gun confiscation, so it's not like they can be made any more angry or motivated than they already are.

Pro-gunners tell me constantly about about how rural red state Dems are pro-gun, and it's not really a right-left thing, but then I look at polls and find that, for example, Democrats in the red state of Texas support the AWB by 75-18. So I'm struggling to find this elusive demographic of people that want to vote Democratic, but will be scared away by gun control.

I know that not all Democrats agree on all issues, but my point is that I don't think guns are particularly different from any other issue. Take abortion, or social security, or Wall Street reform, or whatever. Of course not everyone is going to be on the same side on all of them, but for the most part, people who cross over tend to be centrists -- people like Joe Manchin, who in addition to being pro-gun was also the only Democrat to oppose the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.