Fukushima Meltdown Driving Increased Abnormalities Among US Infants

[caraher]

34. These researchers are, at best, on the scientific fringe

Their analyses of radiation effects are as contrary to the consensus in the field of health physics as those of global warming skeptics are to mainstream climate science. Embrace of studies like this is driven mostly by confirmation bias, not the rigor and significance of the results.

I think it's telling that the endorsements of his work Mangano features most prominently on his web site come not from scientists but Alec Baldwin and Christie Brinkley.

There are lots of problems with the paper itself, not least of which is the disconnect between the putative mechanism for thyroid abnormalities and the correlation they report. The chief claim for a mechanism is that exposure to I-131 during early developmental stages causes these abnormalities (which is very likely true at high doses but, at best, surprising for any plausible exposure level to Fukushima fallout in the US). The authors discuss I-131 measurements across the US but then do not actually use I-131 fallout in their analysis, using instead airborne beta particle measurements. They make no effort to correlate this measure of gross beta activity in air with I-131 exposure, whether to pregnant women, fetuses or newborns. Their analysis does not even remotely consider the possible existence of any other environmental factors that might be different between their "exposed" states and the "control" states. And they admit they cannot say what is really happening in terms of rates of hypothyroidism: "Calculating CH rates of cases per live births is not possible at this time, as final birth totals are not yet available."

Even accepting the results at face value, the overall impact they're talking about is a "confirmed" rise from 281 to 327 cases, across 5 states, in one year, of a condition the authors say "can be effectively treated if detected early." In other words, even if you accept the dubious premise that Fukushima fallout is responsible for that increase, there is no demonstrable harm done beyond treating a few dozen newborns for the hypothyroidism.

None of this means that the Fukushima meltdowns are anything less than a disaster, or that we can simply trust the nuclear power industry. They are, and we shouldn't. But this alarmist nonsense only impedes clear understanding of the magnitude of the true risks.