I Think Obama Is Bluffing

[freedom fighter jh]

124. Maybe if I'm not getting it that's because it doesn't make sense.

Once Obama puts social security cuts in his proposal, one of three things has to happen.

1) Congress can send him back a budget that includes his cuts. I am not so sure as you are that this cannot happen. Who knows what the Republicans are really thinking and what they will really do? When they see the budget going nowhere and they've got Obama where they want him, offering up a delicious social security cut, something they've been salivating over for years, is it not possible that enough of them will ask Grover Norquist to release them from their vows that this thing could pass the House? After that, of course, there's still your "inner wall" of Senate Democrats (plus Bernie) who won't vote for social security cuts. But that's a pretty shaky thing to have to rely on. Oh, I'm sure Bernie is solid, as are many others -- but are they enough? There could be enormous pressure in the form of a bill that contains social security cuts but must pass because it contains something essential.

Or Congress can send Obama back a budget that does not include his cuts. Now what does Obama do?

2) He maintains his position as being willing to cut social security. So he still looks like a traitor. This is who is running our country: someone who would undermine the retirement program that we've been paying into our whole working lives.

Or

3) Obama announces, "I was only bluffing, and the Republicans fell for it." In other words, he'd let the Republicans know he'd been negotiating in poor faith. If he does that, then in future negotiations Republicans will always be looking for a trap in whatever he proposes. Serious negotiators don't bluff, because doing so detracts from their credibility.

And a lot can happen between now and November 2014. As important as the budget is, it is just one of many issues that will affect the election outcome.