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TM99

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58. In fact, there is an internationally

Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:59 AM

Apr 2013

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2013, 09:02 AM - Edit history (1)

accepted standard definition in the Dictionary of Epidemiology.

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/pandemic_preparedness/basic_facts/Pages/definition_of_pandemic.aspx

The 2009 H1N1 'swine flu' was a novel Type A that met all the requirements including world-wide epidemic proportions. Did it kill as many as the 1918-1919 'swine flu' known as the Spanish Flu? No, but a pandemic is not defined by the number of people who die.

The reason why this current bird flu is of potential concern is that it is a novel type. If, and yes, we can not predict whether it will or will not, but if it does cross the animal/human barrier, the potential for another pandemic is, of course, very high. Will it kill only 3500 as the 2009 one did? Or will it kill millions as the 1918-1919 one did? Which do you plan for as a matter of public health policy? Obviously the worst-case and not the best case or you will come up short-handed.

'Skepticism' seems to be thrown around a lot online today not as a valid discussion of reason and/or science but more as a reaction to the faith or true belief involved in the propaganda of MSM or of conspiracy theories. The proper use of words and scientific terms is important if a discussion is not to devolve into school yard antics instead of the sharing of valid information that involves genuine concern.

An article in the New England Journal of Medicine on this novel H7N9 as severely deadly as it has been should be taken very seriously.

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Urgent Warning On New Bird Flu H7N9: Could Pose Global Threat [View all] Robb Apr 2013 OP

I hope this fizzles out without becoming airborne neverforget Apr 2013 #1

That kind of flu... ReRe Apr 2013 #2

Until I see some real cause for concern..... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #3

I disagree Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #6

No, we did NOT have a pandemic, not here in America, at least(what were you even talking about)? AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #10

SARS did not become a pandemic because the Chinese and Canadian officials got on top of it byeya Apr 2013 #11

There is a great documentary out there on the SARS outbreak Marrah_G Apr 2013 #13

Yes the medical staff were helpful and with socialized medicine the sick woman byeya Apr 2013 #15

omg India would especially be a nightmare Marrah_G Apr 2013 #16

That may be true, I think. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #19

We did have a pandemic Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #22

Yup- my friend was only 34 Marrah_G Apr 2013 #25

Tonight it also moved to Henan province Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #32

Hopefully it's just bird to human transmission Marrah_G Apr 2013 #33

I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed! :) nt Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #37

Maybe, but I was referring to just the U.S. alone that time. n/t AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #48

CDC has confirmed that the 2012-2013 flu season TM99 Apr 2013 #44

Ignorance, my ass. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #49

Yes, ignorance! TM99 Apr 2013 #52

While it is admittedly true that there is no one standard, as per Wiki..... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #54

In fact, there is an internationally TM99 Apr 2013 #58

I love it when internet know-it-alls get schooled by science distantearlywarning Apr 2013 #64

It's pretty clear that he isn't going to listen to anything anyone say Marrah_G Apr 2013 #67

..... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #84

I may agree with you in principle TM99 Apr 2013 #99

Preparing how? bhikkhu Apr 2013 #85

That looks more like a zombie apocalypse bag! :) nt Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #88

I disagree Marrah_G Apr 2013 #8

"One of the things that HELP the containment of these things is by making everyone aware....." AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #9

You are correct - it was a serious situation and the next one may be worse. byeya Apr 2013 #12

lol..yeah. The WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!! threads are entertainingly. alphafemale Apr 2013 #53

Do I detect a Monty Python reference somewhere? AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #55

So true, we hear this crap 20 times a year. Crying wolf. n-t Logical Apr 2013 #97

And that worries me a little. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #98

If we choose Hillary as our nominee now, we'll be protected from the flu. winter is coming Apr 2013 #4

Viruses are unpredictable defacto7 Apr 2013 #5

WHO is investigating a couple of clusters Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #7

Thank you for bringing some much-needed level headedness to this thread. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #18

Do you have any scientific information that backs that up? Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #24

No, but it's really based on common sense. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #46

Anyone who has done any serious reading about past pandemics Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #89

Not at all. This isn't 14th century Europe....or early 20th Century NYC, you know. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #90

As a retired nurse with some background in science and medical history, I disagree. nt Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #92

And that's your right. But I'm still correct, though. n/t AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #96

102 cases and 20 dead as of today. Still moving slow and steady. nt Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #100

The experts tend to disagree with you Marrah_G Apr 2013 #26

Which experts? Which experts are EXPECTING an H7N9 pandemic? AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #45

Do some reading on viruses Marrah_G Apr 2013 #66

How about some ACTUAL research papers? I'd like to see some actual papers..... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #82

AverageJoe90, please read this: Avalux Apr 2013 #38

I did. Doesn't change a thing. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #47

It was for the 100s of thousands affected worldwide. graham4anything Apr 2013 #60

You know what Joe? Marrah_G Apr 2013 #68

But the problem is, there's no proof that anybody is EXPECTING a pandemic from this virus........... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #83

Quack Wakefield has caused great damage. Vaccines put a ring around it graham4anything Apr 2013 #56

Graham, I'm not against vaccines. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #61

But graham4anything Apr 2013 #62

At this point all you can do with that warning is wash your hands HereSince1628 Apr 2013 #14

...and don't underestimate the usefulness of doing so. defacto7 Apr 2013 #21

Which is in itself a huge thing Marrah_G Apr 2013 #27

Well, I am hopeful that sometime around Sept, there will be a new vaccine that includes HereSince1628 Apr 2013 #28

They are working on a long-term flu vaccine laundry_queen Apr 2013 #76

Careful about Forbes "sites" contributor stories, Robb... SidDithers Apr 2013 #17

I didn't know that about Forbes. Thanks. :) n/t OneGrassRoot Apr 2013 #20

Thanks, Sid. AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #51

Does this mean I need to take the bird feeder down? snooper2 Apr 2013 #23

No proof of human-to-human transmission yet. If it happens, then we can be really worried. Avalux Apr 2013 #29

If it does go human to human you should post that again Marrah_G Apr 2013 #31

Thank you and I will definitely post it again if need be. Avalux Apr 2013 #34

Great post... SidDithers Apr 2013 #39

Thanks Sid. Avalux Apr 2013 #40

Not sure if you ever read Aetiology over at Scienceblogs... SidDithers Apr 2013 #42

Right up my alley. Avalux Apr 2013 #43

These three paragraphs from the bottom of your linked old thread- graham4anything Apr 2013 #57

Bad timing for Obama making plans for Colonel Sanders to self-regulate the chicken industry. Zorra Apr 2013 #30

I just watched a BBC documentary haikugal Apr 2013 #35

I like the BBC, but the truth is, while a pandemic is by no means impossible...... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #50

I think that's wishful thinking... haikugal Apr 2013 #63

Well, I meant an H7N9 pandemic at any rate.... AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #86

Pandemic? We're in the midst of one now. HIV. 30 Million dead; 34 Million infected and many are byeya Apr 2013 #77

Fixed it. n/t AverageJoe90 Apr 2013 #87

Several countries have been proactive in catching cases and quarantining people davidpdx Apr 2013 #36

Can we do that here? It would have the potential of saving more lives than a terrorist(s) attack. byeya Apr 2013 #91

My husband is a family practice doc Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #93

Thanks! But, is the patient fitting those requirements allowed to walk out the door and infect byeya Apr 2013 #94

What does "appears to be resistant to vaccination" mean? Union Scribe Apr 2013 #41

I take it to mean current, because China has said they think it will be 7 months--- graham4anything Apr 2013 #59

The RNA-based viruses present many difficulties and making vaccines against them. byeya Apr 2013 #65

I read an article last week that said historically Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #70

That sounds reasonable to me. The human genome contains about 100K fragments of retrovirus DNA byeya Apr 2013 #74

Thanks for clarification, all. nt Union Scribe Apr 2013 #95

60 infected, 13 dead. I hope China gets those tests out to other countries soon. nt redqueen Apr 2013 #69

Over a wide spread area too Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #71

I'm planning to go to China next month. tarheelsunc Apr 2013 #72

Cooked poultry is fine Marrah_G Apr 2013 #73

I think the thing to do is to avoid live chickens, ducks, geese and other birds raised for food. byeya Apr 2013 #75

This is a nice blog with lots of info presented in a concise manner Mojorabbit Apr 2013 #78

There's a recently published book SPILLOVER: ANIMAL INFECTIONS AND THE NEXT HUMAN byeya Apr 2013 #79

I'm listen to "The Fatal Strain" on Audiobook Marrah_G Apr 2013 #80

Thanks, I am not familiar with that book and feel I need to be. byeya Apr 2013 #81