General Discussion

DallasNE

(8,015 posts)

61. Great Work

Fri Apr 19, 2013, 04:56 PM

Apr 2013

But I never have understood why people didn't go after the methodology used. For instance, if debt was all that mattered then the length of the period shouldn't matter yet they focused on 5 year spans. Would not it be reasonable to test it against say 3, 4, 6, 7 year periods. To be valid the answer to those other periods should also hold up. Likewise, what were the conditions that contributed to the debt, such as war, and wouldn't that have a big impact. Also, conditions leading into the study period would vary and that would impact the results simply because of the delay that is always present in economic activity. Even events with major trading partners can affect results. This is why I don't think a methodology can be developed that is reliable for measuring what Reinhart and Rogoff attempted and as economists they have to realize that so the purpose can only be political and best left to think tanks. As it is they cheapen the profession by not developing an honest study. I hope people learn something from this.

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Meet the 28-Year-Old Grad Student Who Just Shook the Global Austerity Movement [View all] Scuba Apr 2013 OP

Let's hope he did wryter2000 Apr 2013 #1

+100 So so true and very wrong but that is how the austerity nuts roll lunasun Apr 2013 #2

Krugman has a column in the NYT today on this. CTyankee Apr 2013 #5

Go! Go U! Go U Mass! Go UMass! ChangeUp106 Apr 2013 #3

Wonder if our resident austerity defenders Cal Carpenter Apr 2013 #4

Paul Krugman is right ONCE AGAIN! CTyankee Apr 2013 #6

He is tryingto guide us. But, our people and politicians don't seem to want any expert ladjf Apr 2013 #14

Before this thing came to light, PK was on MOrning Joe rebutting the entire panel all by CTyankee Apr 2013 #18

I read everything I see the Krugman writes in the paper. nt ladjf Apr 2013 #39

That's because.... paleotn Apr 2013 #66

ding, ding ding!! You nailed it, paleotn! tex-wyo-dem Apr 2013 #83

I just can't believe it was an honest mistake.... paleotn Apr 2013 #93

Lying in America's is the only thing we continue to manufacture in mass quantities. Bozvotros Apr 2013 #106

I think that Australia and Canada, at least, might have been purposely omitted Art_from_Ark Apr 2013 #109

Yes, I wonder why people like Krugman and Dean Baker, Stiglitz among others are not part of the sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #100

PK has written about that. He said he wouldn't be interested and it wouldn't be a good CTyankee Apr 2013 #103

Yes, I know, that's why I mentioned a few others. We have plenty of great economists in this country sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #104

It may change, tho! The development with this grad student taking down R. and R. is a CTyankee Apr 2013 #105

. snagglepuss Apr 2013 #7

Simpson and Bowles respond : "HUMMINA! HUMMINA! HUMMINA!" bullwinkle428 Apr 2013 #8

Hahaha. freshwest Apr 2013 #69

GIGO Garbage in Garbage out bklyncowgirl Apr 2013 #9

when the result looks just like you want it to look HereSince1628 Apr 2013 #15

Yup nt bklyncowgirl Apr 2013 #22

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2013 #10

Nah, Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor and Rand Paul will still be citing this study years from now. Scuba Apr 2013 #11

Seems to me Reinhart and Rogoff didn't make a "mistake" joeybee12 Apr 2013 #12

You are a "dark one". But, you just may well be correct. There are people who would ladjf Apr 2013 #16

The cynics are right nine times out of ten joeybee12 Apr 2013 #26

And on the remaining one of 10, they miss Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #34

My favorite quote catchnrelease Apr 2013 #44

That's the one. Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #50

Thanks catchnrelease Apr 2013 #54

I believe that came fromt he comedien Lily Tomlin. nt ladjf Apr 2013 #55

A lot more "dark" ones should speak out. EOM cartach Apr 2013 #36

Those hacks were either very careless or they were crooks. nt ladjf Apr 2013 #37

My thought exactly. "Strange" how their error worked to confirm their hypothesis... NoodleyAppendage Apr 2013 #19

Maybe that's why it was reported that they did not release their data which is a breach of ethics byeya Apr 2013 #23

Yes most scientific reports include the data. I was surprised to read that he had to email them and Maraya1969 Apr 2013 #79

Usually, unless you have friend who shield you, which these 2 do...nt joeybee12 Apr 2013 #30

very rich and powerful friends. paleotn Apr 2013 #67

""Strange" how their error worked to confirm their hypothesis..." tex-wyo-dem Apr 2013 #85

It wasn't just a computing error Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2013 #24

Yup...they knew what they wanted... joeybee12 Apr 2013 #27

Threads on economics and workplace democracy seem to get little play here although they byeya Apr 2013 #28

Obtain outcome FIRST, cook data to arrive at that outcome. HughBeaumont Apr 2013 #29

A Republican recipe for success! nt joeybee12 Apr 2013 #31

lies, damned lies, and statistics. pansypoo53219 Apr 2013 #33

That was my first thought too gollygee Apr 2013 #38

I'm pretty sure you're right. caseymoz Apr 2013 #64

ding siong we have a winner. elehhhhna Apr 2013 #82

They didn't show any remorse about it: rucky Apr 2013 #89

Teabaggers lap up lies like antifreeze IrishAyes Apr 2013 #108

I don't understand the sports reference. kentauros Apr 2013 #13

Sadly, more people know about dunking than those who what relatvity is. Scuba Apr 2013 #20

Yeah, you're probably right. kentauros Apr 2013 #21

Rules for Radicals NJCher Apr 2013 #17

K&R nt abelenkpe Apr 2013 #25

here's to edumacation! yea! ZRT2209 Apr 2013 #32

It's not often that Econ puts a smile on my face Hekate Apr 2013 #35

HUGE K & R !!! WillyT Apr 2013 #40

Another Problem . . FairWinds Apr 2013 #41

What's your basis for this? Herndon was credited as the lead author. Jim Lane Apr 2013 #90

Authorship? FairWinds Apr 2013 #102

Error my ass! It was on purpose! Rex Apr 2013 #42

Here's a link to Herndon's very readable paper. Jim__ Apr 2013 #43

Nice! blackspade Apr 2013 #45

Awesome! MatthewStLouis Apr 2013 #46

THAT"S UMASS AMHERST BABY!!! freethought Apr 2013 #47

What did Thomas see? Debt doesn't stall growth. I wish he would of added that sharing money=pro midnight Apr 2013 #48

Debt can, and often is, cancelled. Chapter 11 bankruptcy can leave creditors high and dry(except byeya Apr 2013 #59

Oh wow,...he looks nerdy enough to star on Maddow. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2013 #49

Life is not that complicated. :-/ DeSwiss Apr 2013 #51

Austerity politics is nothing but plain stupidity. fasttense Apr 2013 #52

fabulous analogy... magical thyme Apr 2013 #97

ideology over data barbtries Apr 2013 #53

That scholar just made the A-Team. Octafish Apr 2013 #56

K & R Liberal_Dog Apr 2013 #57

I'd wish donquijoterocket Apr 2013 #58

Education mathewsj Apr 2013 #60

Great Work DallasNE Apr 2013 #61

Planet earth is too complex to be reliably modeled. Scuba Apr 2013 #62

A grad student sulphurdunn Apr 2013 #63

Only question is who plays the lead? Scuba Apr 2013 #65

K&R because this is actually very important 1-Old-Man Apr 2013 #68

That was no innocent, Excel error paleotn Apr 2013 #70

Let's listen to the wise man, heh? Brains will win over brawn eventually. freshwest Apr 2013 #71

There's an important take-away from this EvolveOrConvolve Apr 2013 #72

From what I've read that's not accurate. Jim Lane Apr 2013 #88

I'm not sure if that's better or worse EvolveOrConvolve Apr 2013 #95

Economics is not a Science...... Theyletmeeatcake2 Apr 2013 #99

It may not be a hard science, but economics is definitely a science EvolveOrConvolve Apr 2013 #101

This is huge malaise Apr 2013 #73

Facts, schmacks. Why look back? blkmusclmachine Apr 2013 #74

marking to return to rurallib Apr 2013 #75

Obama has become an austerity nut zentrum Apr 2013 #76

Reinhart and Rogoff, like Rove and all other Cons cui bono Apr 2013 #77

Two comments about the Reinhart and Rogoff study promoting economic austerity. AdHocSolver Apr 2013 #78

Wingnuts and banksters will now be clamoring for background checks . . . MrModerate Apr 2013 #80

help this old guy out a bit if you can. tiredtoo Apr 2013 #81

Exactly. Scuba Apr 2013 #87

A thank you xxqqqzme Apr 2013 #84

K&R Starry Messenger Apr 2013 #86

it's all bogus math. tomp Apr 2013 #91

it's all bogus math. tomp Apr 2013 #92

My guess is that the error was a feature, not a bug. nt tblue37 Apr 2013 #94

The discovery of the shoddy/perhaps deceitful and often cited work of 2 Harvard profs is epic!! hue Apr 2013 #96

Once had a private conversation with one of my math professor mrdmk Apr 2013 #98

Do you think the FACTS mean anything to this bunch? santamargarita Apr 2013 #107

Time for a kick Quantess Apr 2013 #110