General Discussion

hughee99

(16,113 posts)

35. It's not exactly that simple, though, because demographics matter.

Sat Apr 27, 2013, 05:19 PM

Apr 2013

Reaching into a bag of marbles and pulling out 2000 marbles and counting them doesn't take many factors into account. If the person who filled the bag dumped all the red marbles in, and then all the blue marbles in after, I'm going to get 2000 marbles off the top and they'll all be blue.

I'm not saying there's not a lot of science that goes into it, but in the end, turning a few thousand phone calls into a national poll requires some statistical weighting based on certain assumptions.

It's still not an exact science. If it were, pretty much any poll with sufficient sample size would give the same information, but going back to the 2012 election, that definitely wasn't the case.

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Are we doing ourselves any favors repeating this 90% number? [View all] supernaut Apr 2013 OP

Are you familiar with statistics and how they relate to polling? nadinbrzezinski Apr 2013 #1

I would say no. neverforget Apr 2013 #80

What do you mean when you say "our cause"? Robb Apr 2013 #2

"Your country, mine, every other country in the world, has the same cause" hfojvt Apr 2013 #11

here's my research...several polls spanone Apr 2013 #3

We? LOL. DanTex Apr 2013 #4

Take a course in statistics and polling and get back to "us." 99Forever Apr 2013 #5

You seem to be complaining that only 1,772 came up with the 90% figure. lob1 Apr 2013 #6

How can anyone, but a fool or felon, be against background checks. Hoyt Apr 2013 #7

here's the thing about polling hfojvt Apr 2013 #8

It's not exactly that simple, though, because demographics matter. hughee99 Apr 2013 #35

90% speaks to the disparity on wealth upaloopa Apr 2013 #9

So, the thing with polls is that you only ask a few thousand people Recursion Apr 2013 #10

So, you'd rather the poll be conducted in Montana, North Dakota, or Texas? RC Apr 2013 #12

If you want a true representation of ALL Americans...then yes. davidn3600 Apr 2013 #13

I don't have the tabs in front of me but I remember this poll included 0 from big sky Recursion Apr 2013 #14

So another polling expert heard from Progressive dog Apr 2013 #45

what poll? the op mentions a poll, you mention a poll but where is it? where's the link? spanone Apr 2013 #19

Here you go. supernaut Apr 2013 #36

multiple polls showed well over 80% Progressive dog Apr 2013 #15

What are you talking about? Deep13 Apr 2013 #16

*yawn* Skittles Apr 2013 #29

I thought that might be the case... Deep13 Apr 2013 #62

The 90% figure is probably accurate. rrneck Apr 2013 #17

Would you explain the price to Progressive dog Apr 2013 #46

This is a repost of an old OP rrneck Apr 2013 #53

Every time I read a long post like this, there is always the bottom line Progressive dog Apr 2013 #54

Of course murders, the suicides, the accidental shootings rrneck Apr 2013 #56

Look around and you can find the number of self defense uses of guns Progressive dog Apr 2013 #57

I'll say it again. rrneck Apr 2013 #59

So what, we already have background checks on a self selected Progressive dog Apr 2013 #60

Here is the definition of a loophole. rrneck Apr 2013 #61

The federal government can regulate these sales Progressive dog Apr 2013 #63

Wrong. rrneck Apr 2013 #64

The idea is to change the law, but you knew that Progressive dog Apr 2013 #65

So how should the law work? Explain it. rrneck Apr 2013 #67

No point to this, is there Progressive dog Apr 2013 #68

Can you explain it? rrneck Apr 2013 #70

The gun nuts have to move past the 1st stage of grief Progressive dog Apr 2013 #71

And you still can't explain how a law that you support will work. rrneck Apr 2013 #72

90% of voters support 100% background checks Progressive dog Apr 2013 #73

Another dodge. rrneck Apr 2013 #74

Fact--90% of voters support 100% background checks Progressive dog Apr 2013 #75

LOL! rrneck Apr 2013 #79

Fact-90% of voters support !00% background checks Progressive dog Apr 2013 #81

Still running I see. rrneck Apr 2013 #82

90% of voters support 100% background checks Progressive dog Apr 2013 #83

I don't mind answering. rrneck Apr 2013 #84

So change the subject now Progressive dog Apr 2013 #85

So will the law work and merit your support? rrneck Apr 2013 #86

You don't have to prove why you don't support it Progressive dog Apr 2013 #88

LOL! rrneck Apr 2013 #89

I have already addressed the problems you claim to have with it Progressive dog Apr 2013 #91

So rrneck Apr 2013 #94

If I have to sell a car, it doesn't turn me into a car dealer Progressive dog Apr 2013 #96

Car analogies don't work as well as you think. rrneck Apr 2013 #97

Since you apparently did your usual cut and paste reply without bothering to read Progressive dog Apr 2013 #101

Well, lets play "quote the text". It's tedious, but sometimes necessary. rrneck Apr 2013 #107

And by the way... rrneck Apr 2013 #90

You expect, would that be an opinion Progressive dog Apr 2013 #92

Don't recognize your own words? rrneck Apr 2013 #93

You really don't get it , do you Progressive dog Apr 2013 #98

I haven't had the opportunity to confuse the two rrneck Apr 2013 #100

Rational does not maen agree with you, look it up Progressive dog Apr 2013 #102

That's true. rrneck Apr 2013 #103

Is that supposed to be funny Progressive dog Apr 2013 #104

It may or may not have been funny, but it was certainly accurate. rrneck Apr 2013 #105

I'm concerned about the life part first Progressive dog Apr 2013 #106

Well, you see the problem is rrneck Apr 2013 #108

Where did you find gun nut in the dictionary? Progressive dog Apr 2013 #109

Well, why don't you straighten it all out for us. rrneck Apr 2013 #110

You implied you knew what gun nut meant Progressive dog Apr 2013 #111

Sure they're convinced rrneck Apr 2013 #112

You are right but I thought the right group of people were on DU Progressive dog Apr 2013 #113

It's good to know that you are an American first. rrneck Apr 2013 #114

You are very confused , aren't you? Progressive dog Apr 2013 #115

I've been asking you rrneck Apr 2013 #116

Who died and left you boss Progressive dog Apr 2013 #117

Yet another fearless gun control advocate rrneck Apr 2013 #118

Yeah. When you don't go into specifics, you don't get as much negative response. JVS Apr 2013 #58

*this* is your first OP? bunnies Apr 2013 #18

A new Gungeoneer billh58 Apr 2013 #20

Theyre so cute at this stage. bunnies Apr 2013 #21

I think "new" might be pushing it... DanTex Apr 2013 #25

Lmao nadinbrzezinski Apr 2013 #33

recycled, more likely Skittles Apr 2013 #39

Actual research! edhopper Apr 2013 #22

yet no link....after ALL that work spanone Apr 2013 #23

There is a link in my OP. supernaut Apr 2013 #40

Hey supernaut edhopper Apr 2013 #24

The other problem is that the polls don't ask the right questions kudzu22 Apr 2013 #26

You know, objecting to questions on polls Progressive dog Apr 2013 #47

the sane side of America sigmasix Apr 2013 #27

there seems to be an endless supply of NRA pimps Skittles Apr 2013 #28

Endless.... Agschmid Apr 2013 #38

Unless they used a really biased sample set, it is probably pretty accurate pediatricmedic Apr 2013 #30

I tried to call every phone number in the country, but I missed lunch. And dinner. Buzz Clik Apr 2013 #31

Yes. Any other questions? XRubicon Apr 2013 #32

I want graphs and charts damn it ! olddots Apr 2013 #34

WTF? Are you talking about? n/t Agschmid Apr 2013 #37

For the people who keep saying "no link".. supernaut Apr 2013 #41

Does it Really matter? What dumb ass would be against background checks?? jmg257 Apr 2013 #42

More than 40 Senators Recursion Apr 2013 #43

It ain't over till it's over Progressive dog Apr 2013 #48

Well I hope they find a way to force it through the Senate Recursion Apr 2013 #49

It's not my day to watch 'em. In_The_Wind Apr 2013 #44

I see. Who might those people be who "keep asking" MineralMan Apr 2013 #50

We need to do more research. KansDem Apr 2013 #51

The Only Polls That Matter To A Congresscritter... KharmaTrain Apr 2013 #52

Gunner's Advice alcibiades_mystery Apr 2013 #55

Yes we are. It is helping. We will win this. morningfog Apr 2013 #66

It's more statistical than "Four out of five dentists" NoPasaran Apr 2013 #69

OP has been served his Pizza is no longer with us. nt stevenleser Apr 2013 #76

THIS is why education is so important. nt laundry_queen Apr 2013 #77

That's how ALL polls work gollygee Apr 2013 #78

What do you mean by "we"? baldguy Apr 2013 #87

Excellent joke! ecstatic Apr 2013 #95

Oh Jeez, another person who can't comprehend statistics & polling. JaneyVee Apr 2013 #99