Obama's new AfPak diplomat: U.S. forces needed in Afghanistan 'well beyond' 2014 if peace talks fail [View all]

[rug]

Posted By John HudsonFriday, May 3, 2013 - 7:45 PM

In 2011, James Dobbins, Barack Obama's newly appointed special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, published a 100-page analysis on the importance of a negotiated peace deal for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The document makes for an interesting read as Dobbins transitions from an uncensored private citizen to a lead diplomat confronting the rapid drawdown of America's military presence in the region.

In the report, titled "Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer," Dobbins expressed skepticism about Obama's ability to wind down the Afghan war, full stop, in 2014 in the absence of a peace deal.

"If negotiations fail, some level of American military engagement will probably be necessary well beyond the 2014 date by which President Obama has promised to remove all American combat forces," he wrote.

What we know now, that Dobbins (or anyone else) didn't know then, is that negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government are going nowhere. On Wednesday, the Taliban assassinated a member of the Afghan High Peace Council, the third Taliban assassination of a senior council member in the last year and a half. The attack also occurred one day after the Taliban killed three British soldiers in an IED attack in Helmand province. Meanwhile, planned negotiations in Qatar are stalling and Pakistani support for peace talks has been waning.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/03/james_dobbins_pakistan_afghanistan_peace_talks

Here's Dobbins' report for the Rand Corporation a/k/a Why We're Not Leaving

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1131.pdf