IMO the Democrats are going to show up

[zipplewrath]

18. That's sorta the point

Independents will decide the race. They may decide it by being so frustrated with the GOP that they just flat out throw up their hands and don't vote at all. They may decide to vote with the dems. The only way the GOP wins is if the independents show up and vote for the GOP. As you suggest, if the GOP is having trouble with their own voters, that doesn't bode well for their hopes for independent votes.

The reason that Romney is considered the biggest risk for Obama isn't because he is so popular with the "base" or the conservatives. Quite the opposite, he was seen as the best chance to peel off independents and the base would just have to "come along". That's changing right now because of the mess the GOP is making of their primary. It could be "repaired" by summer though. The dems best chance, even with Romney, is a good economic "summer". The independents tend to stay with a "winner", especially when they see their own situation improving. For them, it's a referendum on the incumbent. And as you suggest, even if it's no a great summer, they may have a permanent memory of the GOP from this spring that doesn't go away, and they basically just stay home.

But in the end the entire discussion is about independents, unless someone wants to truly talk about the left staying away. I don't see that happening at all.