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In reply to the discussion: We Fucked the Jetstream...BIG TIME..... [View all]Junkdrawer
(27,993 posts)60. Probably one of the most flawed stats in weather...
Tornadoes have to be seen and/or damage something to be counted.
With Storm Chasers, radar signatures, and increasing population density, we might, MIGHT be getting better numbers..soon...
...
AMY GOODMAN: Jeff, what is the connection? Is there a connection between this tornado and global warming?
JEFF MASTERS: Thats a tough call. I mean, its an important question. And we really have a huge area of unknowns here to try and answer that question. The big problem is the tornado database isnt very good. It only goes back about 60 years. And we dont measure tornadoes directly. They have to run over a building before we know how strong they are. So weve got a lousy database. And our computer models to study tornadoes arent very good yet. We dont understand what makes them tick very well. So, even with our highest-quality, finest research models, cant tell you what a tornado is going to do and how its going to form, we cant expect our climate models to do that sort of math, either, because theyre a lot courser. They cant look at the fine details very well. So, a lot of uncertainty about how climate change might affect tornadoes.
I might add that over the past 12 months, weve seen the record lowest number of tornadoes in U.S. history, at least the EF1 and stronger tornadoes. But back in 2011, we saw the record highest 12-month total of tornadoes. So, weve just been getting kind of weather whiplash with our tornado seasons. I mean, going from the extreme highest to the extreme lowest, thats really tough to, you know, say what is the trend going to be. Well, it might be one or the other. And at this point, I cant identify what climate change is likely to do, which of those type of years were more likely to get.
....
http://www.democracynow.org/2013/5/21/the_unimaginable_has_happened_massive_tornado
AMY GOODMAN: Jeff, what is the connection? Is there a connection between this tornado and global warming?
JEFF MASTERS: Thats a tough call. I mean, its an important question. And we really have a huge area of unknowns here to try and answer that question. The big problem is the tornado database isnt very good. It only goes back about 60 years. And we dont measure tornadoes directly. They have to run over a building before we know how strong they are. So weve got a lousy database. And our computer models to study tornadoes arent very good yet. We dont understand what makes them tick very well. So, even with our highest-quality, finest research models, cant tell you what a tornado is going to do and how its going to form, we cant expect our climate models to do that sort of math, either, because theyre a lot courser. They cant look at the fine details very well. So, a lot of uncertainty about how climate change might affect tornadoes.
I might add that over the past 12 months, weve seen the record lowest number of tornadoes in U.S. history, at least the EF1 and stronger tornadoes. But back in 2011, we saw the record highest 12-month total of tornadoes. So, weve just been getting kind of weather whiplash with our tornado seasons. I mean, going from the extreme highest to the extreme lowest, thats really tough to, you know, say what is the trend going to be. Well, it might be one or the other. And at this point, I cant identify what climate change is likely to do, which of those type of years were more likely to get.
....
http://www.democracynow.org/2013/5/21/the_unimaginable_has_happened_massive_tornado
Which is why my OP says "Weather Weirding on Steroids."
But, TBH, I don't remember huge tornadoes hitting the same places over and over like we're seeing. I find that, disturbing.
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You might want to think about that "step away from the computer" advice yer own self, "AverageJoe"
villager
May 2013
#2
I'm simply saying that those who freely advise others to "step away from the computer,"
villager
May 2013
#16
I was intending to refer just to Junkdrawer's "Mitigation is making it worse comment".
AverageJoe90
May 2013
#6
Are you really applauding "climate change mitigation" via "The Faustian Bargain"????
Junkdrawer
May 2013
#4
Don't you DARE conflate the switch from coal to natural gas as "The Faustian Bargain"...
Junkdrawer
May 2013
#40
Well, to be honest, I didn't know the whole story behind that, and besides......
AverageJoe90
Jun 2013
#51
All I have to say to you is one word: "Penny-Pritzker". Obama's Mit Romney.
rhett o rick
Jun 2013
#47
I think the intent was to express that mitigation is enabling further pollution.
mattclearing
Jun 2013
#52
Matt, I think 99% of us share a certain opinion with you, myself included.
AverageJoe90
Jun 2013
#53
Nobody would necessarily HAVE to give up creature comforts because of a switch to green energy.
AverageJoe90
Jun 2013
#72
"We need to shove myths like this, as well as certain other things, aside, and focus only on facts"
Veilex
Jun 2013
#83
Oh, come on--we can play that little back and forth game, but you know what I meant.
MADem
May 2013
#42
The way I describe Sandy - "The eye of a huricane passed by Buffalo on it's way to Canada."
Spitfire of ATJ
May 2013
#22
My prediction (or hope) is that we are heading for an eventual mini-Ice Age. Which will help slow
KittyWampus
May 2013
#21
You do understand that the qualifying word "mini" refers to a geological time line, about 5 centuries
Egalitarian Thug
May 2013
#27
The possible result of too much CO2 in the atmosphere/altered Jet Stream is a mini Ice Age.
KittyWampus
May 2013
#28
Are you *really* claiming that burning coal in China is an attempt to mitigate climate change?
muriel_volestrangler
Jun 2013
#61
You're right. Hansen doesn't say that. He says "Doubling Down on our Faustian Bargain"
Junkdrawer
Jun 2013
#63
The Australians were able to kill over 90% of the rabbits with two different agents.
FarCenter
Jun 2013
#79
Interesting. I have often thought about what cutting out the rain forests have done to the climate?
jwirr
Jun 2013
#85
It takes a while to go through, but the Skeptical Science article linked in the OP is excellent.
Junkdrawer
Jun 2013
#86