All this talk about Obama. The real issues are about Congress.

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2. we're likely to see similar paralysis for 2 years, followed by different paralysis for 2 more years.

odds are really good obama will win and republicans will keep the house.
the only real question is the senate, where democrats are likely to lose seats.

at this point i think we can feel good about our chances of holding the senate barely, but it's not a lock.

so in all likelihood, republicans will continue to stalemate washington.


two years hence, it's very much against history to expect pickups in congress, certainly not the house.
so again, obama remains in the white house and republicans keep the house.
if republicans haven't already taken the senate in 2012, they're got a very good shot at it in 2014.

assuming they get the senate at that point, we'll still have stalemate, but republicans will be able to get both houses of congress to pass legislation that they know obama will veto. so instead of a do-nothing congress, we'll have a congress that puts show legislation up to set the stage for the presidential race in 2016.

like i said, a different form of paralysis.