General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Get ready for it: Another economic collapse is coming. [View all]Leftist Agitator
(2,759 posts)Krugman himself admits that a major European crisis would cause major disruption with unforseeable consequences, "...if European events cause a Lehman-type event, disrupting financial markets world-wide, all bets are off."
And though Dean Baker may be convinced that the collapse of the Eurozone is unlikely, I disagree. The EU doesn't have the kind of institutional structure that the US does. If Nevada gets into financial trouble, the other 49 states pick up the slack under the guidance of the Federal government. The EU constitution doesn't have a similar provision. Greece is still sovereign, and Angela Merkel And Nicholas Sarkozy can't force the Greek government to defy the will of the Greek people forever. If there is a revolution in Greece, which looks increasingly likely as harsh austerity measures are imposed, then I agree with Krugman that all bets are off.
And though I respect the opinions of both men, I would remind you that the majority of economists (though not these two) didn't see the handwriting on the wall before the last crisis.