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In reply to the discussion: Remember the old Soviet Union? [View all]Igel
(37,493 posts)It was probably the first entire book I ever read in Russian. Thin little tome.
He was off by a few years. Ridiculed horribly by Sovietologists. Then again in 1991 or 1992 I was at a AAASS meeting in which the panel discussion was essentially, "How did we screw up so badly?" in predicting that the USSR was stable and would be around for many decades to come.
The old men said they hadn't. Or they cited their work saying that there was uncertainty. Or that they hedged their bets. Often they cited stuff from the last minute or a hedge in the second to last paragraph of a 300-page book or the footnote of a masterful article demonstrating that the USSR was solid as a rock.
One young guy who got his PhD young, had a job, and wasn't going into academia just railed against them--both for screwing up so massively and being unable to admit it. It was amusing to watch him laugh when they made some far-fetched ass-covering claim.