General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Why can't we elect Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to the whitehouse in '16? [View all]onenote
(46,314 posts)First, I'm not sure when you say "we" who you are refererencing. DUers? The Democratic party? The nation? Obviously, DUers don't have the ability to elect anyone president by themselves. "We" would need the support of the rest of the Democratic party and from a lot of indepedent voters who float back and forth between supporting repub candidates and Democratic candidates.
Second, Sanders and Warren can't get the Democratic nomination and they can't win as a third party. They can't get the nomination because the Democratic party isn't going to nominate someone to head their ticket who does not identify themselves as a member of the Democratic party. And Warren isn't going to participate in a third party run against a Democratic nominee, because doing so would kill her chances of ever being part of the Democratic party ticket in the future. And even if they did run as a third party, the chances of them capturing enough electoral votes to win is zilch.
Third, Bernie's age will work against them. Its not fair, since he would basically be the same age as McCain was when he ran in 2012, But remember all the jokes about McCain's age? I believe that they did have a negative impact on his efforts to appeal to "swing" voters. In addition, while there is no comparison between Elizabeth Warren and Sarah Palin (really none at all), having an "old" presidential candidate focuses a lot of attention on the VP candidate (just as having a "young" presidential candidate focuses attention on the VP candidate. Obama played his cards correctly by picking an old hand like Biden. McCain screwed up by picking an inexperienced person like Palin (to say nothing of all of her other flaws). The repubs are likely to take a page out the Obama playbook and pick a young-ish presidential candidate and pair him with an older, more experienced VP candidate. The latter combination is likely to be more appealing to swing voters (assuming that the repubs don't pick truly extreme candidates, which they might well do.
Fourth, money. If Hillary runs, she will have the money and organization to swamp a run at the Democratic nomination by someone who doesn't identify himself as a Democrat. And if Sanders mounts a third party campaign, the best he could do against the Democratic nominee is prevent that nominee from capturing states that are needed for a Democratic victory. Obama won a decisive looking victory in 2012, but the fact is that he won several states quite narrowly.
Fifth, and finally, regional concentration. Its not necessarily fatal to a ticket, but it doesn't help to have a ticket that is not geographically diverse. Vermont and Massachusetts are viewed, rightly or wrongly, as states that are near locks for the Democrats no matter who is nominated. Reaching out to a different region of the country (Midwest, West, South) is probably essential for the Democrats.