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OnlinePoker

(6,114 posts)

10. What do you think BLS is?

Reply to Honeycombe8 (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 21, 2012, 09:03 PM

Feb 2012

They poll 60k households and determine the unemployment rate from that. Gallup may only poll a couple of thousand, and this can result in some wild differences (over 1% early last year, for example). However, for the past 8 months their mid-month numbers have either been equal to or underestimate the BLS unemployed number for the end of the month.

For a good primer on how BLS comes up with their monthly numbers, here's a link to their site:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

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Gallup survey shows 'sharp deterioration in job market' in Feburary, unemployment rate rises to 9.0% [View all] stockholmer Feb 2012 OP

Could well be a blip in a generally downward trendline. Jackpine Radical Feb 2012 #1

$105(WTI-Cushing) / $122(North Sea Brent) a barrel oil prices do not bode well, I see QE3 by June stockholmer Feb 2012 #4

I'm sure that you're drooling over the prospect. TheWraith Feb 2012 #17

Some say the real rate is at least double the official rate. phasma ex machina Feb 2012 #2

And some people say that the Earth is 6,000 years old. TheWraith Feb 2012 #12

The U6 unemployment rate is the real unemployment rate, used by Europe. It's at 15.1% Zalatix Feb 2012 #18

How does your theory about the earth's age affect unemployment? phasma ex machina Feb 2012 #19

Considering the way the numbers are obtained, the "real rate" is higher without a doubt. Bonobo Feb 2012 #20

Gallup isn't seasonally adjusted. Apparently, the same time last year, they had the rate at 10% BzaDem Feb 2012 #3

I guess we will wait and see what the BLS numbers are stockholmer Feb 2012 #6

could......'Unemployment could rise back to 9 percent' and it could go down spanone Feb 2012 #5

Don't Panic!!! LongTomH Feb 2012 #7

yes. Also, I noticed Obama said "it will rise and fall" so I think he kind of knew then. nt Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2012 #15

That's not very reassuring... BlueDemKev Feb 2012 #16

Believe me! I already expect an uphill battle all the way! LongTomH Feb 2012 #22

Is Gallup a recognized authority for the unemployment rate? I never heard that. Honeycombe8 Feb 2012 #8

So called progressives grasping for the usual negative straws alcibiades_mystery Feb 2012 #9

What do you think BLS is? OnlinePoker Feb 2012 #10

thanks so much for this great link. nt Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2012 #14

I wouldn't know what procedures are best for statistics, anyway, so I'll go w/official nos. Honeycombe8 Feb 2012 #21

they actually did predict that it would drop below 9 before it did...I was following it then nt Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2012 #13

Now they are reporting monthly employment reports before the end of the month? Dawson Leery Feb 2012 #11

and throwing in "Regardless of what the government reports..." bhikkhu Feb 2012 #23