General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Fuck Assad, take him and his generals out. [View all]Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)while the fine details are unknowable, here's what will happen if we "take out Assad"
1) Baathist policy encourages hard competition between the different branches of the military and between commanding officers. This is a method to keep the armed forces politically self-crippled and ensure the primacy of Assad (or formerly, Hussein.) With Assad removed, this culture will remain, and the Syrian armed forces will fragment and factionalize. Without an "official" government to support them, and with the knowledge that even if they had the political ability to take the lead, the invading West would just bar them anyway, they join one section of the insurgency or another.
2) The insurgency groups, bolstered by the influx of soldiers, does not solidify into a new government - quite the opposite. They continue to fight each other, but with even bloodier results. Syria descends into a new depth of civil war, possibly with the Kurdish northeast as the only "stable" area (and unlike Iraqi Kurds, they are unlikely to shelter NATO operations.) Nevertheless, NATO will crown one faction or another the "Official" government, whose authority will probably only exist either outside Syria, or within a few portions of Damascus
3) Several of these insurgent groups are going to point their guns at the interfering Westerners - or just go the easy way out and start firing on Israel, as they've said they would. Unable to identify which groups are doing what - since most of the groups themselves probably can't - NATO forces content themselves with going after whatever insurgent targets are on the screen. These attacks could very well include chemical weapons, as we already know the rebel groups have them and have used them.
What you are advocating is not going to achieve what you hope it will achieve. No one will be "saved" by "taking out" Assad and his generals under current conditions.