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Douglas Carpenter

(20,226 posts)
52. well the U.S. didn't care at all when Saddam was using chemical weapon until after he invaded Kuwait
Wed Aug 28, 2013, 01:52 AM
Aug 2013

So suggesting that the western world formerly cared about whether or some dictator gassed their own people is disingenuous to the extreme. But all of that aside - What will be the consequences of the U.S. attacking Syria? Will it make things better? Or will it make things worse? If Assad falls - there will be a state of chaos in Syria that will last for along time to come. As the slogan in the Syrian opposition movement goes, "Christians to Beirut - Alawites to the grave." If the U.S. gets involved - it is far more likely that we will see even more babies dying in agony.

This article was written more than a year ago when at the time no one was suggesting direct U.S. military involvement - but the points are still the same:

Liberals arguing that the U.S. should give weapons to Syrian rebels underestimate Assad's power

I strongly recommend reading this article in salon.com by Gary Kamiya:

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/13/dont_arm_syrias_rebels/singleton/



snips:

This is not a knee-jerk left-wing response. It has nothing to do with Iraq. Nor does it have anything to do with the proxy war between the U.S. and its allies and Iran and its allies. It is not driven by pacifism or opposition to all war. All U.S. wars are not axiomatically foolish, evil or driven by brutal self-interest (although most of them since World War II have been). The airstrikes on Kosovo and the Libya campaign were justified (although the jury is still out on the latter intervention). If arming the Syrian opposition would result in fewer deaths and a faster transition to a peaceful, open, democratic society, we should arm them.

That analysis has been provided by a number of in-depth reports, most notably a new study by the International Crisis Group, as well as the excellent on-the-ground reporting of Nir Rosen for Al-Jazeera. The bottom line is simple. The war has become a zero-sum game for Assad. If he loses, he dies. But the only way he can lose is if he is abandoned by his crucial external patron, Russia, which is extremely unlikely to happen absent some slaughter so egregious that Moscow feels it has to cut ties with him. Assad has sufficient domestic support to hold on for a long time, and a huge army that is not likely to defect en masse. Under these circumstances, giving arms to the rebels, however much it may make conscience-stricken Western observers feel better, will simply make the civil war much bloodier and its outcome even more chaotic and dangerous.

The key point concerns Assad’s domestic support. Contrary to the widely held belief that most Syrians support the opposition and are opposed to the Assad regime, Syrians are in fact deeply divided. The country’s minorities – the ruling Alawites, Christians and Druze – tend to support the regime, if only because they fear what will follow its downfall. (The grocery on my corner in San Francisco is owned by a Christian Syrian from a village outside Damascus. When I asked him what he thought about what was going on in his country, he said, “It’s not like what you see on TV. Assad is a nice guy. He’s trying to do the right thing.”) As Rosen makes clear, Syria’s ruling Alawite minority is the key to Assad’s survival: Absent an outside invasion, the regime will not fall unless the Alawites turn on it. But the Alawites fear reprisals if the Sunni-dominated opposition, some of whose members have threatened to “exterminate the Alawites,” defeats the Assad regime. The fear of a sectarian war, exacerbated by the murky and incoherent nature of the opposition, means that the minorities are unlikely to join the opposition in large numbers.

...

Our national instinct is to come riding to the rescue. It goes against our character to simply sit on our hands. Our sincere, naive and self-centered belief that America can fix everything, and our equally sincere, naive and self-centered belief that moral outrage justifies intervention, is a powerful tide, pulling us toward getting directly involved in Syria’s civil war.

But in the real world, we cannot always come riding to the rescue. Sometimes, we have no choice but to watch tragedy unfold, because anything we do will create an even bigger tragedy.


http://www.salon.com/2012/04/13/dont_arm_syrias_rebels/singleton/

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

So? Fuck 'em. Why should we care what they think? The Velveteen Ocelot Aug 2013 #1
Ding Ding Ding! we got's us a winner here. ChairmanAgnostic Aug 2013 #6
+1 Scuba Aug 2013 #25
you mean...."Top DONORS control access..." yourout Aug 2013 #30
+2 Segami Aug 2013 #54
Love it!! Two thumbs up. . . DinahMoeHum Aug 2013 #16
Hear, hear! Laelth Aug 2013 #23
Luckily Abq_Sarah Aug 2013 #2
According to them, they love america and will back a president in a time of war The Straight Story Aug 2013 #3
Really? You're laughing because he's likely to get into another war, and Dreamer Tatum Aug 2013 #8
Wow, right over your head The Straight Story Aug 2013 #11
Actually, we're the ones in greater danger of hypocrisy Nuclear Unicorn Aug 2013 #22
where do you get this "unilateral" business....I think thats why we are in a holding pattern VanillaRhapsody Aug 2013 #26
"Contacted"? That's the standard now? Merely contacted. Nuclear Unicorn Aug 2013 #31
well we are not in there yet are we? VanillaRhapsody Aug 2013 #32
If we go in it will be far more unilateral than anything we complained about over Iraq. Nuclear Unicorn Aug 2013 #33
We shall see....seems France and the British are leaning toward us. VanillaRhapsody Aug 2013 #36
"Uni", as in whose wings the bombs drop from, or whose ships the missiles fly from... cherokeeprogressive Aug 2013 #44
Uni as....that hasn't happened yet has it? Aren't you putting the cart before the horse VanillaRhapsody Aug 2013 #45
well they are almost certainly going to attack sometime very soon and it will certainly be without Douglas Carpenter Aug 2013 #34
Because Russia will veto it...and why is that you might ask... VanillaRhapsody Aug 2013 #49
well the U.S. didn't care at all when Saddam was using chemical weapon until after he invaded Kuwait Douglas Carpenter Aug 2013 #52
I don't care. I don't think one should be controlled by some group's odd sense of humor. eom yawnmaster Aug 2013 #4
are you losing sleep over it? frylock Aug 2013 #5
Fuck the thugs, like their opinion means jack shit. Autumn Aug 2013 #7
I don't give a shit what the 'thugs think. nt City Lights Aug 2013 #9
I am not as easily influenced by their opinions. nt NCTraveler Aug 2013 #10
Our goal should be good governance and broader suport of human rights... Agnosticsherbet Aug 2013 #12
i have turds more intelligent than them folks spanone Aug 2013 #13
Are they laughing their asses off because LondonReign2 Aug 2013 #14
Don't care. I'll criticize Obama if he does something wrong. So should you. Dash87 Aug 2013 #15
I don't give a flying-you-know-what about what 'thugs are doing... WorseBeforeBetter Aug 2013 #17
And we care about this Spirochete Aug 2013 #18
Whoa. AtomicKitten Aug 2013 #19
I am laughing my ass off at people who think in such terms cthulu2016 Aug 2013 #20
Ironic that you end with "think". ForgoTheConsequence Aug 2013 #21
Yep. Zoeisright Aug 2013 #24
They are laughing at us because we voted in a D that acts more like an R davidn3600 Aug 2013 #27
so to prevent 'thugs' from laughing their asses off we should kiss Obama's ass? bowens43 Aug 2013 #28
well its time then to unite and support military strikers and the surveillance state and chained Douglas Carpenter Aug 2013 #29
you can't say thugs... ileus Aug 2013 #35
What you talkin bout? BootinUp Aug 2013 #37
I guess somebody should care what the Repukes think. Rex Aug 2013 #38
Fuck them with rusty pipes fujiyama Aug 2013 #39
So, what then? Go Obama? Bomb Syria! cherokeeprogressive Aug 2013 #40
This needs to go back to the top cherokeeprogressive Aug 2013 #41
Let's bomb us some Syrians with NO clear evidence of who gassed who, cuz they're laughing at Obama. cherokeeprogressive Aug 2013 #42
+1000! n/t markpkessinger Aug 2013 #50
Sorry, Rosco.. They don't give a Cha Aug 2013 #43
So popular with you, you'll back his play even though we don't know who gassed who. cherokeeprogressive Aug 2013 #46
It's like 2003 redux, with (d) and (r) reversed. Democracyinkind Aug 2013 #55
Well, they might be laughing. blue neen Aug 2013 #47
For all the thugs who are laughing their asses off... AsahinaKimi Aug 2013 #48
And the overwhelming response to your OP is "All the Obama hatred, all the vile comments." Hekate Aug 2013 #51
Good for them, maybe humor will lead to developing humanity. Scootaloo Aug 2013 #53
You realize that 'thugs are morans don't you? GeorgeGist Aug 2013 #56
same trap Obama falls into - giving a rats ass what they think - n/t Locrian Aug 2013 #57
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»You realize the 'thugs ar...»Reply #52