9% approval for bombing Syria = suicide for Dems in 2014

[HardTimes99]

191. 1914 did not see a move from peace to 'total war' overnight. Instead, there was a

sequence of events, each of which taken on its own seemed quite logical and understandable, given the immediate casus bellum that preceded it but the end result of which saw a world at war and with no single human capable of stopping the war machine on his or her own. (Eugene Debs here gave it a try and look what happened to him

To wit, Imperial Germany gives the Austro-Hungarian Empire (PKA "The Habsburg Empire&quot the infamous 'blank check' to attack Serbia. Russia offers guarantees to Serbia if it is attacked. Austria-Hungary attacks Serbia. Russia declares war on imperial Germany and imperial Germany decides to neutralize its western front by trying for a repeat of 1870 but violates Belgian neutrality to do so, triggering Entente Cordiale guarantees of Britain, France and Italy. By the end of this chain, the entire developed world is at war. (Well, America doesn't get drawn in until after a German Uboat sinks the Luistania, but that's really by-the-by for our purposes.)

Consider August 2013. The U.S. attacks Syria. Iran and Russia have offered guarantees to Syria to defend its sovereignty. Russia displays restraint, but Iran attacks Israel and U.S. ships deployed in the Gulf. The U.S. retaliates against Iran, pushing the Soviets to attack Israel. Now all bets are off and the entire region and world's superpowers are involved, perhaps with nuclear Armageddon as the end-game. (Well, this time around, Britain has decided to opt out apparently.)

No one (other than simpletons) has ever declared that history repeats itself exactly. But certain constants in modern experience do seem to appear and re-appear. Thus, "Remember the Maine!" pre-figures the Gulf of Tonkin which in turn pre-figures Niger Yellowcake, just as the ineluctable logic of tit-for-tat 1914 pre-figures its contemporary counterpart.