Who wrote the "U.S. Government Assessment" released today?

[joshcryer]

17. I hope Obama reads his own government's assessment.

And, no, not the intercepts, not the evidence he might be presented directly, read what they're peddling to the American people.

Because that's really their position, they only have confidence, no proof. Confidence this, confidence that. That's fucking speculation. It's as bad as going to war based on my own speculation on this subject. It's nonsense.

Intelligence wonks sitting around a table having a discussion about this sort of thing, it's just insane. And I can see the President taking their talks more seriously and believing that "confidence" means more than what they're telling him to his face.

Basically if you're in a room with people telling you something dire but prefacing it with likelihoods and possibilities you're going to inclined to listen and take their word for it. They were right about Bin Laden (whatever the CT people think, I think Bin Laden was found and executed). That sort of thing probably is even more persuasive to Obama. Except in Bin Laden's case it wasn't a matter of "high confidence." They had a currier who gave Bin Laden away!