General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: This Modern World: And Away We Go -- - Nothing Says "We Care" Like A Tomahawk Missile Strike [View all]cheapdate
(3,811 posts)There are a constellation of circumstances that point to Assad, and a wide range of reasons why it's far more plausible that Assad is responsible than the rebels, at least as I see it.
I think the evidence is as good as it's going to get, barring some new, dramatic revelations.
As I understand the technical details of sarin gas, any residue left behind, as on shell fragments or open canisters, degrades or evaporates in a short time -- a matter of hours.
So, I think we're left with the picture that the terrible incident took place on the afternoon of August 21, while Assad's forces were shelling the West Ghouta suburb, as they had been doing for the past three days. There is no dispute over the fact that Assad's government possesses a large stockpile of functional chemical warheads, as well as the artillery pieces and the trained gunners needed to deliver the shells on target.
I don't really know all of the details of the evidence for Assad's responsibility. Reports have been produced by the governments of France and the US that purport to present the evidence in detail. They're available online but I haven't read them.
Obviously, the Assad government vigorously denies the accusations and blames the rebels or others. There are also, I understand, reports of another eleven or so earlier incidents of nerve gas attacks on a smaller scale, and which again, many blame on the Assad government and which the Assad government vigorously denies.
Bottom line, in my view, I don't believe you could say the evidence is incontrovertible, although I think it strongly points to Assad.
(BTW: I'm against military action in Syria, just so you know.)