A 3rd Party may tip the election in 2016

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20. From your very own link

Even further, according to exit polls, only 25% of Nader supporters would have voted for Gore had Nader not run. Over half of the Nader voters would have stayed home, and the rest would have voted for Bush or another third party candidate.

Now let's parse this out, shall we. According to this, in Florida, 1/4 of Nader voters would have voted for Gore, 1/2 wouldn't have voted at all, and 1/4 would have voted for Bush OR ANOTHER THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE. Now way if just oh, 1,000 of them would have VOTED FOR ANOTHER THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE. Then Gore gains 1,000 votes. He lost by about 750. Again, that is from your link.

I tried to track down their exit polls and the link doesn't work. So I can't comment on them, except to say the following, exit polls are just that polls, not actual elections. The only thing special about exit polls is when they are taken (the votes of voters can't change after they cast the vote). Thus you will have a pretty large MOE with the state ones being larger than the national one. I also have to say, there is an awful lot of assumption about what Perot voters would or wouldn't do with literally no proof offered at all. The fact is both of your links back my numbers on what Nader did nationally. I have to hit the sack now as I get up early but I will try tomorrow afternoon to track down exit polls.