General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: What happens if Assad shoots back? [View all]Xithras
(16,191 posts)If it really is just a small number of limited strikes to "punish" the regime for using chemical weapons, I'd guess that Assad will keep his missiles stabled to prevent a much wider war that he would unquestionably lose.
But if it becomes clear that the U.S. is actively trying to destroy his military infrastructure to help the rebels and unseat him, it's entirely possible that he may order something like this anyway. If the U.S. comes in on the side of the rebels, he'll have nothing to lose because he's a dead man either way. Assad isn't dumb, and he knows that winning this war is his only chance to avoid ending up like Gaddafi or Milosevic. If this is a "take your lumps and carry on" action, he still has a chance to win it. If this turns into an open attempt to unseat him, then all bets are off, and I'd expect everything from an open bombardment of Incirlik and Israel, to wide scale WMD launches against rebel strongholds. Cornered dogs are the most dangerous.