General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: That was pretty goddamned incoherent, frankly. [View all]MADem
(135,425 posts)He basically told the loonie right to STFU. It was like "I see you idiots over there in the corner, don't think your shit is passing me by, but I know what I'm doing and you don't."
As for the "pinpricks" there was a very specific reason for that--this is a bit long-winded but the situation isn't simple. He needed to send a couple of messages.
What he said was, we prefer to not do this, but if we do take the decision to do this, we are going to hit al-Assad in ways that cause PAIN to him.
Killing civilians, or military personnel, would not "hurt" al Assad. He comes from a culture that believes that earthly existence sucks compares to the afterlife. I know many people like this, who often express a lack of what I regard as "healthy fear" when it comes to leaving this earth too soon! There would be no "pain" in Bashir's mind from causing damage to his population, either military or civilian. In fact, he'd USE their martyrdom to bolster morale.
The way to hurt al-Assad is to deliberately spare his people and take away his toys--his fixed wing and helicoptor aircraft (that he's still paying for), his tanks, his APCs, his rocket launchers, his ammo depots, his oddball factories way out on deserted desert roads, his AIRFIELDS, his piers in his ports---all the things he uses to prosecute his civil war and resupply it.
Obama's audience wasn't just al-Assad with that comment, either. Pootie has a "Gitmo deal" with al-Assad to use the port of Tartus at a mega-bargain price; in exchange for the forgiveness (twenty some odd cents on the dollar) of a shitload (we're talking billions) of old USSR debt. Since the Turks don't like warships of a certain capacity to bypass their straits, if Pootie wants to build a presence in the Med he needs something south of Turkey to do it. He's already dredged the port sufficiently to accommodate his cruiser-ish aircraft carrier, and he had big plans to really fix the place up. He has exclusive use of one end of that port, and he's been using it. He does have dreams of a glorious Russian Navy, but thus far, it's pretty much dreams (though he IS working on it--make NO mistake--he's increased recruiting and show-the-flag cruises).
Further, if, just supposin', al Assad fails and the Sunnis take over, there are a shitload of Russians in Syria, "helping" the regime in this way-n-that....kind of how the Cubans "help" Venezuela. Those people will need to be gotten OUT, quickly, because some of the assorted Sunni 'opposition forces' might regard them as lucrative ransoms, or worse, as infidels whose heads need to be lopped off on YOUTUBE to incite the morons who support them against the "infidels" (anyone they don't like, i.e.) who oppose them.
In any event, Pootie will NEED Tartus to do a non-combatant evacuation operation. If the piers at Tartus are crushed with Obama's "pinpricks-plus," or there's a hazard to navigation--like some big ass old barge or what-have-you---blocking the port, then Pootie will have to rely on air assets to help his people escape....and if the airfields are pockmarked like a spotchy teen's face, he'll have trouble on that end, too.
Pootie knew it was in his best interest to stop with the snark and start contributing to a solution. That does not make Pootie a hero or a peacemaker, it makes him a pragmatist who understands his own self-interest.