Alan Grayson

[TheKentuckian]

143. The answer is most likely. Yes or no is not definitively possible in a world without

perfect prescience. Also, your time line is "ever", so in addition to perfect prescience absolute prescience is required.

The ability to peer down roads and around corners on a scale that dwarfs human history we all hope is required to answer your crazy broad question.

The further away from the general now the less certain the influence of current and recent players but let's start with a thirty year ban (minus direct attacks on us or our allies) and see how it plays out then, better yet...make it fifty or a hundred.

So no it sure isn't just Obama but it will be at least a generation pass before the insidious influence has subsided enough to give any credence to altruism in the region and fifty or a hundred years would be even more comfortable, maybe after that last barrel of oil and the last of the natural gas is gone will I buy a mercy mission meddling in the internal affairs of a middle eastern country unless they are attacking and occupying their neighbors without being a member of a truly global effort at the greatest need.

We've been a negative influence for decades in that region, no matter what our rationale for involvement has been. We don't make things better and we prop up awful dictators. Your perspective is far to small to be demanding absolute prediction spread over forever.