North Korea's Impending Collapse: Three Grim Scenarios [View all]

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North Korea's Impending Collapse: Three Grim Scenarios

by Geoffrey Cain at Global Post (Business Insider)

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-koreas-impending-collapse-three-grim-scenarios-2013-9

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Civil war

Experts doubt that the North Korean regime would succumb peacefully. Here’s why: Imagine that while the bulk of North Korea suffers, you’re among the Supreme Leader’s lackeys, kicking back with expensive whiskey, Swiss ski trips, and karaoke parties in your Pyongyang lair.

If the nation slides toward chaos, you’ll have a vested interest in protecting the system.

Your other choice? Surrender and face trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity. The United Nations, after all, isn’t happy about those slave labor camps.

With nothing to lose, the North Korean ruling elite would likely take up arms in a bloody civil war or a coup d’etat. “A military coup by some or all of the armed forces, perhaps causing fissures within the military, seems to me more likely than a popular uprising,” says Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.



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