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jeff47

(26,549 posts)

6. No, it doesn't.

Reply to 0rganism (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 02:37 PM

Oct 2013

If it was ignoring gerrymandering, why would Democrats need more than 50% of the vote?

Pollsters looked at the 2012 results, and found the 17 closest Republican wins. A swing that could turn those seats Democratic would result in a 5%-7% Democratic swing nationally.

While you can't literally flip the causality around, it is a handy tool for getting an idea of who may win the House without having to poll all 435 districts.

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Before the shutdown, Democrats were losing next year�s House race. Now they�re winning [View all] swag Oct 2013 OP

shhhhhhhhhhhhh Don't tell them. They are too dumb to figure it out on their own appleannie1 Oct 2013 #1

Dinosaurs have very poor memory Coyotl Oct 2013 #7

ignores congressional districts, gerrymandering 0rganism Oct 2013 #2

And ignores the pending TPP. AnotherMcIntosh Oct 2013 #5

No, it doesn't. jeff47 Oct 2013 #6

yes it does, insofar as it inverts causality to make its point 0rganism Oct 2013 #9

I can see it now...the state mini-Roves will be pontificating victory and the news anchor will dash libdem4life Oct 2013 #3

If the candidates act like traditional Democrats, there will be a rout. But remember the TPP. AnotherMcIntosh Oct 2013 #4

The teabaggers don't care because BumRushDaShow Oct 2013 #8

Ah, yes, don't forget the power of the "liberally-biased media" helping the "liberals" ... zbdent Oct 2013 #10