General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Heads-Up !!! - 'Why Democrats Might Cave On Social Security Cuts' - HuffPo [View all]FogerRox
(13,211 posts)Trust Fund depletion projections: Low cost (2090), Intermediate cost (2032), high cost (2029) and a stochastic model (2048).
These projections are based on more than employments levels. Take for instance workforce growth projections, the SS Actuaries use numbers such as .5% thru 2030, no one projects less than 7% thru 2050. These sorts of workforce growth projections are incredibly conservative, and unrealistic. Current workforce growth is at about 1.1% and is expected to decline thru 2050, on a chart it looks like a slope downward, the .5% thru 2030 number requires a drop from 1.1% to .5% by 2020 and from 2020 thru 2030 .5% each year.
And remember by 2048 we Boomers are statistically dead, we wont get paid benefits.
Life expectancy projections, GDP projections, they even figure in the effect of Obamacare, a lot goes into these projections. The most important thing to remember is that the SS Actuaries have a legal responsibility to publish conservative projections, and to believe SS will go broke by 2032 requires a recession that lasts thru 2032.... which quite frankly is very unrealistic.
So if by some combination of Wage growth, GDP, inflation, workforce growth and employment (the 5 major order factors) we get thru 2048 or so, its clear that solvency thru 2090 becomes a cakewalk.