Obama's "You can keep your plan" failed to anticipate how much Americans love cheap crappy plans

[BlueStreak]

83. I don't think there has been any deception about the mandate

And in fact, the mandate the first year is very, very small, so I don't expect a great wave of outrage as people file their 2014 tax returns 16 months from now. As we go into the 2015 ACA plan, this all ramps up. I think that is one of the unspoken things that people don't really understand. This is a multi-year roll-out, just as it was in Massachusetts. A lot of people won't do this in 2014 and they will pay a nominal fine. But but 2015 and 2016 we should be seeing very high enrollment rates.

And not coincidentally, by 2015 and 2016 the markets (and computer systems) will be working more smoothly, giving us more consistent competition across the entire country. Insurance companies are working hard to maintain cartels in a lot of the states today. But by about February 2014, there will be companies saying "Why should I compete so hard in California for a $400/mo price when I can sell a policy with exactly the same risk in Indiana for $650/mo. The idea of common standards and transparent exchanges for every state fundamentally changes how insurance companies must compete. Some of them are being bastards right now, but this structure will eventually close in on them.