General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: I'd prefer to see Elizabeth Warren as our next president. But if Hillary Clinton [View all]starroute
(12,977 posts)I can see any number of things happening between now and then that will change the arithmetic.
For one, the very fact of the "Hillary is inevitable" talk indicates there is already a battle going on for control of the Democratic Party, between what we might call the corporatists and the reformers. If the 2016 nominating process is played out in the context of that struggle, all the candidates and issues will scrutinized in terms of which side they're on.
For another, the Democratic Party is currently suffering a definite crunch in terms of candidates. Part of this is because the GOP holds more than its share of statehouses and has more figures who are viewed as likely candidates than the Democrats do. The other part is that the media seems dedicated to playing up those Republicans and ignoring any potential Democratic rising stars. But we really don't know what's going to happen over the next two years or who might suddenly rocket to prominent out of nowhere.
A third factor is what might loosely be called social discontent. If the economy is still stalled two years from now, things will be a lot different than if it has taken significant steps towards recovery. But either way, I expect that a lot of young people are still going to be feeling screwed and are going to be extremely distrustful of establishment candidates. Elizabeth Warren has the credentials it takes to avoid the Boomer label -- Hillary doesn't.
And there is also a high potential for radical outbursts of one sort or another between now and then. Occupy 2.0 is a real possibility if they figure out a new tactic. Or the baggers and gun nuts may finally decide it's time for Fort Sumter 2.0. Or maybe both at once. A 2016 election campaign fought under conditions that approximate those of 1968 would be very different from a "normal" election year.
For all those reasons, I don't like to even speculate about 2016 any more. But the one thing I'm fairly sure of is that any significant degree of upheaval would leave Hillary stranded, because she can't campaign on taking us back to the good old days the way a Republican might and she can't campaign on being the person to lead us into the future.