Please Don't Take the "2016" Bait

[cbdo2007]

35. In the past 100 years....

75% of the time following a multi-term President, the opposite party wins the next election**
The 25% of the time the same party won, it was the prior VP running and winning -
Therefore, Joe Biden is our best hope for President in 2016!

66% of the time following single or multi-term President where there is a different person running (i.e. President Obama is not running again), the opposite party wins the next election.
Of the 33% of these times when the same party won, 80% of those were won by the previous VP.

Again, statistically, Joe Biden is overwhelmingly our best hope for winning in 2016 and is therefore practically guaranteed the nomination.

source: Wikipedia


**this includes Kennedy/Johnson as a "multi-term" President due to the circumstances of Johnson assuming the Presidency. Removing them from the first equation still results in a 72% chance the opposite party wins the next election.
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Your assertion "that it is more likely to retain the Party of the incumbent President than to flip." is not valid when considering President Obama is not eligible to run again. I'm trying my best to compare apples to apples.