14 is just too young. I can't accept throwing away the key on children

[geek tragedy]

50. interesting read. most salient part:

2.12 A study which looked specifically at rape followed 54 rapists released from a maximum security psychiatric hospital in Canada over a period of almost four years. Of this group, 59% committed a further offence, 28% committed a further sexual offence, and 43% committed a further violent offence (Rice, Harris, and Quinsey 1990). A similar study with rapists and child molesters, this time involving 178 patients over a period averaging about five years, found that 28% were convicted of a new sex offence, while 40% were arrested, convicted, or returned to the psychiatric facility for a violent (including sexual) offence (Quinsey, Rice, and Harris 1995). Research into 251 incest offenders at the Royal Ottawa Hospital Sexual Behaviors Clinic (Firestone et al. 1999) found that, roughly six and a half years after their conviction, recidivism was 6.4% for further sexual offences, 12.4% for violent offences, and 26.7% for offences of any kind.

2.13 Two studies by Hagan and Gust-Brey looked specifically at adolescent perpetrators of rape (1999) and of sexual assault against children (2000). The ten-year follow-up of 50 adolescent rapists released from custody in Wisconsin showed that most were convicted of further crimes, but not of a further sexual assault. For those who committed a further sexual offence, the pattern of assault remained stable in years 6 - 10 as it did in years 1 - 5, meaning this group seems to commit such offences at a fairly steady rate for at least 6 - 10 years after release. No decrease in the risk of sexual recidivism was apparent even up to ten years after release. For sexual assaults against children, 12% of the sample reoffended sexually, 66% were convicted of non-sexual offences, and 22% were not reconvicted during a ten-year follow-up. Though the risk of further sexual offences continued throughout the ten-year period, most first sexual offences after release for this group took place in the first five years.

2.14 A methodological analysis of recidivism studies of sex offenders assessed six official sources on 251 rapists and child molesters discharged from a treatment centre in Massachusetts over a 25-year period (Prentky et al. 1997). The research found high variability in reported recidivism depending on the methods and definitions used. However a number of findings were consistent, namely that both rapists and child molesters remain at risk of reoffending often long after their discharge from custody (in some cases 15 - 20 years); simple calculations of recidivism based on those known to have reoffended during a follow-up period consistently underestimated the actual amount; and

measures based on conviction or imprisonment also markedly underestimated the actual amount of reoffending.