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muriel_volestrangler

(106,056 posts)
4. I'm in the south of England, and it's not a big topic here
Mon Jan 6, 2014, 08:30 PM
Jan 2014

but I would say conventional wisdom is with the polls - that 'no' is ahead, though there are many undecided (who, of course, may well not vote at all). Here's a good summary page of polls:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

The 'don't know' number seems to vary a lot, but that is, I think, because TNS BRMB asks "there will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?", while YouGov asks "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland’s future and this was the question, how would you vote? Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?", and IPSOS " Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? (Based on those certain to vote in a referendum)".

So I think TNS BRMB makes many people think "plenty of time to go - I might change my mind, I'll say "don't know", while most others are more likely to get the current feelings. Apart from TNS BRMB, most recent polls have had a majority for 'no'.

I don't think any of the UK regular DUers live in Scotland at the moment (but I may have forgotten someone), so I don't know if you'll get a good 'on the ground' report.

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