US ‘Will Stand With the People of Ukraine’ – Kerry

[dipsydoodle]

8. I not advocating anything

but present they seem to have little choice.

The trade deal with the EU is currently impractical given that given that they do not the ability to attract the funds necessary for the transition over a number of years which is estimated to be c. 220 billion Euros. That amount is roughly equal to the entire bailout of Greece. Do not fall into the trap however of drawing other comparisons with Greece by way of loans subsequently written down or written off - that just would not happen in the case of the Ukraine whose main debt is owed to Russia.

They have only limited access to funds via bonds whatever other than through Russia. The IMF have already said that any loan would be conditional on a substantial increase in the price their consumers pay for gas which the Ukraine refused. The EU offered a gift of a billion Euros as an inducement which was also turned down.

The opposition have yet to provide any details of how they would manage the situation if they did in fact get into power and then agreed a trade deal with the EU. Mention was made in the early days of the possibility of a triple agreement between the Ukraine , Russia and the EU and maybe that would provide a solution.