Analysis - Is Syria now a direct threat to the U.S.?

[pampango]

1. "Assad sees no real pressure, certainly not from Iran and probably not from Russia."

At a private meeting with members of Congress at the Munich Security Conference last week, Secretary of State John Kerry said that "the al-Qaeda threat is real, it is getting out of hand," Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham later told reporters. "He openly talked about supporting arming the rebels. He openly talked about forming a coalition against al-Qaeda because it's a direct threat.

Noah Bonsey, a Beirut-based Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group, called Kerry's reported statements "an acknowledgement of the facts." On the rebel side of the conflict, al-Qaeda aligned militants have badly damaged the international reputation of the Syrian opposition. On the government side, Assad and his backers in Iran and Russia are increasingly confident.

"Geneva made abundantly clear that the regime is not prepared to compromise on anything at all, no matter how small," Bonsey said in a telephone interview, referring to the peace talks. "They believe themselves to be winning and they perceive themselves as seeing no real pressure, certainly not from Iran and probably not from Russia."

Public opinion polls in the United States continue to show sweeping opposition to greater American involvement, including arming more moderate rebels. Experts say only one scenario could change Washington's stance: Syria-based militants somehow strike the American homeland. Until that occurs, no level of carnage in Syria, Egypt or the Middle East is likely to change Washington's political calculus.

The "probably not from Russia" is the only thing that keeps Assad awake at night. As long as Putin sticks with Assad, he will still be ruling Syria (at least most of whatever is left of it) ten years from now.

There was a post here a few days ago that Russia was not adequately resupplying Assad's jets, bombs and missiles. That is why his troops have been dropping improvised "barrel bombs" from helicopters recently. Assad's main military advantages are heavy weapons like tanks and big artillery and aircraft with their bombs and missiles. He needs Russia to keep supplying them.