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HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
59. Cops as the base of the percentage seems wrong, indeed percentages seem minimally useful
Thu Feb 27, 2014, 01:03 PM
Feb 2014

It considers the risk of bad policing events compared to all cops. But cops, good and bad, are involved in many policing events everyday, and it's quite likely that even bad cops don't do 100% bad policing...

If you want to know the unconditioned risk of a bad policing event, such events should be measured against all policing events...a comparative base that would be many multiples of the actual number of police...and which would make the problem of bad events seem even smaller.

Much of society has a very low tolerance for bad policing events. But, what is needed/wanted is to really reduce the occurrence of these events, not to make the proportion of these events look smaller by playing with a denominator in a ratio.

Reducing occurrences requires identifying and managing hazards that contribute to bad events, so that the hazards can be anticipated and managed to reduce the occurrence of the actual events.

Because not all policing events are as likely to result in a bad policing event, initial detection of hazards that contribute to bad events must be studied among good and bad policing events where a suspect factor is present as well as where the suspect factor is absent.

Simple percents don't work very well for this.

Simple statistical tests like chi-square contingency tables can be used to analyze such data to detect factors that co-occur in patterns with the bad event, although in their simplest form chi-square type analysis doesn't distinguish features among bad events that co-occur in patterns but which are spurious with respect to causation.

Addressing spurious factors doesn't reduce risk, it misdirects resources. The analysis of the problem requires a bit more sophistication. And it should be obvious that referencing poorly considered percentages reduces the opportunity to obtain meaningful understanding.

Moreover, even after all the statistical analyses are completed, not every contributing hazard may be amenable to management. Management of a particular risk can only be directed and tractable hazards.

What is and isn't tractable isn't a question of statistics.

A few responses Scootaloo Feb 2014 #1
Is the impression that "government institutions... turn a blind eye"... Silent3 Feb 2014 #8
Don't ignore the hiring practices either! Beach Rat Feb 2014 #41
309 U.S. deaths by police action in 2013. 47 deaths by police action in the UK since 1922. pa28 Feb 2014 #2
Yes, but we have some of the best gun control around, and you have some of the worst. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2014 #67
I think this hits the nail on the head... Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #85
The percentage of bad cops approaches 100. All you have to do is judge it rationally. Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #3
What have I tried to justify? Silent3 Feb 2014 #10
Do you really not realize that yes, this is the only thing that matters regarding this issue? Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #12
What also matters is whether cops, on the whole, do more harm than good. Silent3 Feb 2014 #13
No, it isn't. FFS, have we fallen so far down the rabbit hole that even this most fundamental Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #15
So it's not important if cops do more harm than good? Silent3 Feb 2014 #17
The Contract. You get power over me so long as I benefit, too. Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #27
you have nothing to support your conclusions treestar Feb 2014 #62
It must be just awful living your entire life so in fear of bogey-men that Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #71
Are you saying there is no crime? treestar Feb 2014 #74
Bogey-man? Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #78
OK, let's say most cops are good. Kindly point them out to me. DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2014 #4
I work with a former cop AgingAmerican Feb 2014 #5
I think that it is about the only thing most Progressives and most Republicans 30cal Feb 2014 #7
"He also said that the force is 90% Republican.' HughBeaumont Feb 2014 #81
From a cops perspective it's us versus them. 30cal Feb 2014 #6
I have, once long ago, reported an assault to the police. Silent3 Feb 2014 #11
from the massive cop hatred on DU I can see why they TorchTheWitch Feb 2014 #88
The so-called "good cops" would be more convincing Heidi Feb 2014 #9
BJS maintains statistics on matters such as arrest-related deaths struggle4progress Feb 2014 #14
IOW, our police kill more Americans every year that the most successful terrorist attack in history. Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #16
Something like 31000 a year die from guns here and another 33000 in traffic accidents struggle4progress Feb 2014 #19
Neither guns, motor vehicles, nor even terrorists are granted special license Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #20
It's a bundle of problems worth considering, and if you have any useful ideas, I'm sure struggle4progress Feb 2014 #21
There are literally thousands of useful plans out there. Lack of alternatives is nowhere near Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #22
BINGO! HangOnKids Feb 2014 #24
I'm a radical. Libertarian, Communist, left-wing, hippie, looney, racist, feminazi, purist, Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #36
I have an idea not sure if its a good one...all complaints against police are filed by and interview Drew Richards Feb 2014 #90
I think only larger police departments have something an Internal Affairs struggle4progress Feb 2014 #91
That doesn't appear to be true. Captain Stern Feb 2014 #38
You're right, I mis-read the reply. It doesn't change the point at all. n/t Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #40
It sort of DOES change your point Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #82
Not even close... Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #79
This message was self-deleted by its author EX500rider Feb 2014 #80
My take, as someone who was a deputy some years back The Straight Story Feb 2014 #18
You were a cop. What a shock. n/t Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #37
And he offered some interesting information and solutions. nt msanthrope Feb 2014 #58
If you look at the big picture... MrScorpio Feb 2014 #23
There will be none of that fancified Big Picture gazing around here. Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #30
Great reply. defacto7 Feb 2014 #32
14,612 homicides in the United States annually hfojvt Feb 2014 #33
I've read enough news accounts on DU to understand this is a big problem pacalo Feb 2014 #39
Could it be, perhaps, that what's wrong with our cops is... Silent3 Feb 2014 #56
I never said that the police don't need a lot of reforming, however, did I? Silent3 Feb 2014 #57
Germans and Americans will approach cops differently treestar Feb 2014 #61
There's a big cultural difference Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #84
314 million people (2012) / 800,000 = one per 392 people. Coyotl Feb 2014 #25
"a few bad apples spoils the barrel." is the full term, as Scootaloo said AZ Progressive Feb 2014 #26
Yay cops! stevil Feb 2014 #28
They're your enemies when you do need them as well. Egalitarian Thug Feb 2014 #29
Example? stevil Feb 2014 #31
This message was self-deleted by its author Th1onein Feb 2014 #35
I can see the point on both ends of this argument. defacto7 Feb 2014 #34
Nowhere have I suggested that there aren't big problems to fix Silent3 Feb 2014 #54
My statement was general, not specific to you. defacto7 Feb 2014 #76
So you are willing to accept a 2% level of bad cops? MindPilot Feb 2014 #42
Like I said, queue the straw men. Silent3 Feb 2014 #47
Post removed Post removed Feb 2014 #43
Thank you for your cogent, closely COLGATE4 Feb 2014 #44
You are welcome. eom PowerToThePeople Feb 2014 #45
With the ALL CAPS response title, I thought you were being sarcastic. Silent3 Feb 2014 #48
It is probably twice that for total public criminal law enforcement FarCenter Feb 2014 #46
I'm not sure what you're arguing for, since the larger the number... Silent3 Feb 2014 #49
US law enforcement officers per 10,000 people looks about average FarCenter Feb 2014 #53
I'm sure all the dead victims and the families left behind appreciate your statistic. Rex Feb 2014 #50
I don't have any statistics DefenseLawyer Feb 2014 #51
It's not the number, it's whether criminal cops are treated like criminals. DetlefK Feb 2014 #52
It wouldn't be wrong to say that there's something wrong with the military, or with the police. Silent3 Feb 2014 #55
Cops as the base of the percentage seems wrong, indeed percentages seem minimally useful HereSince1628 Feb 2014 #59
There's nothing in what I wrote to suggest that simple percentages are the be-all... Silent3 Feb 2014 #65
Percentages, like anecdotes must be considered carefully and compared to something HereSince1628 Feb 2014 #69
Where's the threshold between appropriately sensitive and unrealistically idealistic? Silent3 Feb 2014 #75
Yes, exactly. It's a critical issue, and not really a matter of statistics per se HereSince1628 Feb 2014 #86
agreed, keep in perspective treestar Feb 2014 #60
When it happens to you then your silly op means nothing! L0oniX Feb 2014 #63
The "when it happens to you" perspective is the most important one... Silent3 Feb 2014 #64
Depends of how compassionate a person is about the victim. L0oniX Feb 2014 #66
So the only way to properly express compassion... Silent3 Feb 2014 #68
Seems like you have a list of reasons to be compassionate about the cops. L0oniX Feb 2014 #72
What does what I'm saying have to do with being "compassionate" about cops... Silent3 Feb 2014 #73
so many police because of the legal seizures of cash and assets from their 'war on drugs.' Sunlei Feb 2014 #70
Couple of things.... Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #77
It isn't just an issue of mental illness...it's the problem of cops dealing with noncompliance HereSince1628 Feb 2014 #87
That's true... Jeff In Milwaukee Feb 2014 #89
Bad cops are a sign of poor leadership in a community. haele Feb 2014 #83
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