Stupid question, I know: Why shouldn't Ukraine split in two?

[DFW]

78. What a minorty part of the country desires may not be best for the country, that's why

Yes, Czechslovakia split up. That was an easy one. The Czechs had a tourist-money gold mine in Prague, a west only too eager to throw money at a country led by Vlaclav Havel, and a brand new democratically elected government. The Slovaks had a Soviet-style holdover leadership and nothing to offer the Czechs except a drain on their economy. The Slovaks got the raw end of that deal by separating, and the Czechs were only too happy to wave goodbye.

The Ukraine, like other ethnically diverse countries in Europe (Spain, Finland, Switzerland, Romania, etc.) has plenty of reasons to split up, but more to stay together, especially if you're NOT an ethnic Russian with an axe to grind. Being under Putin's yoke is not always fun and games, and if you're a political dissident, it can be downright fatal. Besides, the Ukies didn't enslave the Russians, put them to forced labor, or even force them to speak Ukranian under pain of punishment.

Quite aside from the question of sending Russian occupation troops in as a fore-runner of a territorial grab, it is (or should be) up to the Ukraine as a whole to let part of the country go or not (I recall a guy named Lincoln being faced with a similar dilemma), not Vladimir Putin, and not even the Russians living in the Crimea. Sweden isn't sending troops into Finland to protect land where the Swedish-speaking minority lives. France and Holland aren't doing it with Belgium. Italy isn't doing it in Ticino. Hungary isn't doing it in Transylvania. The last time there was a messy split-up, it was very bloody, sent a million refugees my way, many of whom are still here, and led to the formation of a few wobbly and uselessly independent states (Crna Gora, Croatia, Republic-formerly-known-as Macedonia, etc. etc). Ethnic Serbs still live in Croatia. Ethnic Croats still live in Bosnia. Ethnic Albanians still live in Macedonia. So, it was all for what? Yugoslavia was a artificial creation of World War I, granted, but it became a cool place to be before the nut cases decided that killing was more fun than sex. In the seventies, I used to hang out in Marshal Tito Square in Zagreb with long haired 20-somethings who used to be perfectly at ease with kids from other parts of Yugoslavia. The biggest conflict was when someone made a comment, and a local would say, "yeah, but you're a Serb!" and everyone would have a laugh. It was one mellow scene, and it needed some heavy stirring up to get a cool group of people like that to abandon their guitars and exchange them for sniper rifles. Putin is an expert at that kind of stirring up. It's what he was trained to do. I've been to the villa where he lived while he was a KGB hotshot living in East Germany while the rest of the East Germans were living in pre-WWII apartments. Not like Yanukovich's digs in Kiev, but some pretty fine real estate just the same. THAT'S the kind of Russian he's really protecting. Putin cares about the rest of the Russians cheering him in Ukranian streets about as much as Rick Perry and Tom Corbett care about their adoring penniless rednecks who can't wait to find out how great it is to get cancer from fracking.

At the end of the day, there will be some saber rattling and even some minor skirmishing if enough people on the ground miscalculate, but we're not getting involved, NATO isn't getting involved, and both Putin and Obama know it. There will be some posturing. Then Putin will get away with as much he can, and we can all wring our hands, calm down after a while, and shout "NEXT!"