If Bernie runs, Hillary won't

[Jim Lane]

245. If Hillary doesn't run, Cuomo will, and will be the favorite.

There might be debates that fill DU with threads about what a bang-up job Bernie did and how he really handed it to that corporatist Cuomo.

Meanwhile, outside DU, Cuomo will have more name recognition, waaaaaay more money, more endorsements, and more favorable treatment from the media. It won't even be close.

BTW, Manny, as to your repeatedly saying that it's inconsistent to look at expressions of intent not to run and believe Warren's while disbelieving Hillary's: It's not inconsistent because their situations are different. One of the two has a much longer involvement in politics, a demonstrated willingness to go through all you have to go through to make a serious run for the Presidency, and a bunch of factors that contribute to probability of success (including high national name recognition, high national approval rating, established relationships with many big-money donors and bundlers). All those make it more plausible that Hillary will decide to run than that Warren will.

On Warren's side, she has greater enthusiasm among the members of the Democratic Party's progressive wing -- a group that has neither the numbers nor the money to make a huge difference in a nomination battle.

I would love to see either Warren or Sanders as President. We're not there yet, though. The main advantage of such a progressive candidacy in 2016 would be to help get the ideas out there and make it more likely that we can vote for a good candidate in the general election in some future year.

ETA: I'm referring to the advantage of a progressive candidacy for the Democratic nomination. I'm absolutely against a third-party run by Sanders or Warren or anyone like that. A third-party run by Ted Cruz, on the other hand, would be a boon to the country.