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In reply to the discussion: Most of us here were against the invasion of Iraq, correct? [View all]amandabeech
(9,893 posts)bases, whether in the Crimean region or back to Russia. No plebiscite will be looked on as truly valid when the plebes are being controlled by troops of an occupying deploying from their bases in the region that they are attempting to occupy or from invading armies.
Russia, and whomever is acting with them in Crimea, whether by inclination or force, will not allow international UN monitors into Crimea to observe and report on the fairness of such an election.
If Russia will not consent to those two reasonable stipulations, it suggests to me that Russia is afraid of a "no to annexation" vote. Most reliable sources say that about 60% of Crimean voters are of Russian descent. The rest are mostly Ukrainian with a significant minority of least 12% Tatar.Neither the Tatars nor the Ukrainians are likely to vote for anything other than remaining as an autonomous are within Ukraine. There are also suggestions about that voters born during the early '90s or late '80s in Ukraine identify as Ukrainian regardless of their ethnic heritage. Perhaps that Russians realize that a combo of young adult ethnic Russians could join the Ukrainian, Tatar and other groups' vote to turn down the annexation, which would be unacceptable to Putin who apparently cannot sleep at night without complete control of the bases.